Kashima Antlers 2-1 Kawasaki Frontale — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Japan - J1 League, 17 Mar 2024

Kashima Antlers
2-1 HT 0-1
Kawasaki Frontale
📅17/03/2024 · 🕒09:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-0 ✗ 2nd Score 0-1 ✗
Japan - J1 League – 2024

Kashima Antlers vs Kawasaki Frontale Prediction — Model Probabilities

MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
37%
2.53
Draw
26%
3.04
Away
37%
2.54
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
58%
1.67
Over 2.5
42%
2.1
Both Teams to Score
Yes
43%
1.85
No
57%
1.85
Total Goals
0-1 Goal EV+ ✗
35%
2.68
2-3 Goals
37%
1.77
4-5 Goals
19%
4.36
6+ Goals
9%
22.3
Value flag · 0-1 Goal at 2.68 — our 35% vs market 31.2%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
18%
3.96
1/2
6%
32.5
1/X
5%
13.3
X/1
14%
5.48
X/2
12%
5.4
X/X
12%
3.97
2/1
6%
33.0
2/2
19%
3.88
2/X
8%
13.3
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
37%
Home Win
36%
+2.0pp
26%
Draw
29%
-3.2pp
37%
Away Win
35%
+1.2pp
58%
Under 2.5
56%
+1.5pp
42%
Over 2.5
44%
-1.5pp
43%
BTTS Yes
50%
-7.4pp
57%
BTTS No
50%
+7.4pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.

Kashima Antlers v Kawasaki Frontale — Team-Based Signals

PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Kashima Antlers EU Bookmakers 40%
Head to Head
AWAY Kawasaki Frontale EU Bookmakers 39%
-9% / -15% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +1% / -5%
1.09/1.39 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.44/1.36
-5% / -6% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +6% / -23%
53% Ball Possession 47%
13 Total Shots 11
5 Shots on Target 4
4 Corners 5
359 · 79% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 324 · 78%
17.8 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 25.3
19.8 Crosses 14.6
1.4 Yellow Cards 1.3

Kashima Antlers vs Kawasaki Frontale Head-to-Head — Last 6 Meetings

H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Kashima Antlers
0W-0D-6L
AWAY Kawasaki Frontale
0.67 Avg Goals (FT) 2.33
0.69 xG 1.64
48% Ball Possession 52%
11 Total Shots 11
4 Shots on Target 5
5 Corners 2
343 Passes 393
75% Pass Accuracy 79%
19 Box Touches 21
19 Crosses 12
2 Yellow Cards 1
The Meetings
24.11.2023 Kawasaki Frontale Kawasaki Frontale 3-0 HT 1-0 Kashima Antlers Kashima Antlers JAP
25.02.2023 Kashima Antlers Kashima Antlers 1-2 HT 1-0 Kawasaki Frontale Kawasaki Frontale JAP
27.08.2022 Kawasaki Frontale Kawasaki Frontale 2-1 HT 2-0 Kashima Antlers Kashima Antlers JAP
26.02.2022 Kashima Antlers Kashima Antlers 0-2 HT 0-2 Kawasaki Frontale Kawasaki Frontale JAP
27.10.2021 Kawasaki Frontale Kawasaki Frontale 3-1 HT 1-0 Kashima Antlers Kashima Antlers JPK
22.09.2021 Kashima Antlers Kashima Antlers 1-2 HT 0-0 Kawasaki Frontale Kawasaki Frontale JAP

Kashima Antlers 2-1 Kawasaki Frontale — Actual Match Statistics

RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Kashima Antlers
2-1
AWAY Kawasaki Frontale
1.97 xG 0.62
43% Ball Possession 57%
12 Total Shots 9
3 Shots on Target 3
8 Corners 5
232 Passes 354
69% Pass Accuracy 80%
29 Box Touches 15
20 Crosses 22
1 Yellow Cards 2
POST-MATCH Kashima Antlers vs Kawasaki Frontale
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Kashima Antlers squeezed past Kawasaki Frontale 2-1. It was 0-1 at half-time, meaning the result turned around in the second half.

Our pre-match split (37% / 26% / 37%) promised a tight game; Kashima Antlers found the edge the numbers couldn't. The goals read — under 2.5 goals (58%), no to both teams scoring (57%) — went the other way, though.

On the day, Kashima Antlers had 43% of the ball to Kawasaki Frontale's 57%, shots finished 12-9, expected goals 1.97 to 0.62 — an xG gap that size says the one-goal margin undersold Kashima Antlers's control.

For context: across their last 6 meetings in our records, Kawasaki Frontale led the recent series with 6 wins. Those games averaged 0.67 goals for Kashima Antlers and 2.33 for Kawasaki Frontale.

What was the final score of Kashima Antlers vs Kawasaki Frontale?

Kashima Antlers 2-1 Kawasaki Frontale in the Japan - J1 League on 17/03/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Kashima Antlers vs Kawasaki Frontale?

Before kick-off our model rated a Kashima Antlers win the most likely single outcome at about 37%, with the full match-result split Kashima Antlers 37%, draw 26%, Kawasaki Frontale 37%. The final score 2-1 went against our main leads this time — single matches are noisy by nature; our accuracy is measured across thousands of predictions, not one result.

◐ Match Result — model had it level (37/26/37) ✗ Under 2.5 ✗ BTTS No
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