Korona Kielce 2-2 Pogon Szczecin — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Poland - Ekstraklasa, 17 Mar 2024

Korona Kielce
2-2 HT 2-0
Pogon Szczecin
📅17/03/2024 · 🕒14:30 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 0-1 ✗ 2nd Score 1-1 ✗
Poland - Ekstraklasa – 2023/2024

Korona Kielce vs Pogon Szczecin Prediction — Model Probabilities

MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
30%
2.99
Draw
28%
3.18
Away
42%
2.16
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
54%
1.86
Over 2.5
46%
1.86
Both Teams to Score
Yes
50%
1.7
No
50%
2.03
Total Goals
0-1 Goal EV+ ✗
30%
3.34
2-3 Goals
39%
1.78
4-5 Goals
23%
3.53
6+ Goals
8%
13.95
Value flag · 0-1 Goal at 3.34 — our 30% vs market 24.4%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
13%
4.72
1/2
10%
26.0
1/X
11%
12.8
X/1
10%
6.71
X/2
11%
4.94
X/X
11%
4.45
2/1
7%
34.0
2/2
20%
3.05
2/X
7%
12.5
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
30%
Home Win
30%
+0.5pp
28%
Draw
28%
-0.1pp
42%
Away Win
42%
-0.4pp
54%
Under 2.5
50%
+4.4pp
46%
Over 2.5
50%
-4.4pp
50%
BTTS Yes
55%
-5.0pp
50%
BTTS No
45%
+5.0pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.

Korona Kielce v Pogon Szczecin — Team-Based Signals

PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Korona Kielce EU Bookmakers 33%
Head to Head
AWAY Pogon Szczecin EU Bookmakers 46%
+6% / +3% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -4% / +6%
1.23/1.19 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.72/0.99
+10% / +13% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +1% / +19%
45% Ball Possession 55%
11 Total Shots 12
4 Shots on Target 5
5 Corners 5
268 · 73% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 384 · 80%
21.4 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 30.3
21.2 Crosses 19.9
1.7 Yellow Cards 2.2

Korona Kielce vs Pogon Szczecin Head-to-Head — Last 6 Meetings

H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Korona Kielce
1W-2D-3L
AWAY Pogon Szczecin
0.67 Avg Goals (FT) 1.17
0.73 xG 1.73
42% Ball Possession 58%
9 Total Shots 16
4 Shots on Target 4
6 Corners 6
250 Passes 380
69% Pass Accuracy 81%
16 Box Touches 34
21 Crosses 21
1 Yellow Cards 2
The Meetings
16.09.2023 Pogon Szczecin Pogon Szczecin 3-1 HT 1-1 Korona Kielce Korona Kielce POL
18.03.2023 Pogon Szczecin Pogon Szczecin 0-0 HT 0-0 Korona Kielce Korona Kielce POL
04.09.2022 Korona Kielce Korona Kielce 1-2 HT 0-2 Pogon Szczecin Pogon Szczecin POL
20.12.2019 Pogon Szczecin Pogon Szczecin 0-1 HT 0-0 Korona Kielce Korona Kielce POL
19.08.2019 Korona Kielce Korona Kielce 0-1 HT 0-1 Pogon Szczecin Pogon Szczecin POL
22.02.2019 Korona Kielce Korona Kielce 1-1 HT 0-1 Pogon Szczecin Pogon Szczecin POL

Korona Kielce 2-2 Pogon Szczecin — Actual Match Statistics

RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Korona Kielce
2-2
AWAY Pogon Szczecin
1.82 xG 1.39
38% Ball Possession 62%
11 Total Shots 13
3 Shots on Target 4
4 Corners 8
207 Passes 387
71% Pass Accuracy 81%
19 Box Touches 24
17 Crosses 28
3 Yellow Cards 2
POST-MATCH Korona Kielce vs Pogon Szczecin
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Korona Kielce and Pogon Szczecin couldn't be separated, finishing 2-2. It was 2-0 at half-time, meaning the result turned around in the second half.

Our pre-match lean was Pogon Szczecin at 42%, but a lead that slim is closer to a coin-flip than a call — and it fell the other way.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 46% and both teams to score was close to even at 50%.

On the day, Korona Kielce had 38% of the ball to Pogon Szczecin's 62%, shots finished 11-13, expected goals 1.82 to 1.39.

Coming into the game, across their last 6 meetings in our records, Pogon Szczecin led the recent series with 3 wins, 2 drawn. Those games averaged 0.67 goals for Korona Kielce and 1.17 for Pogon Szczecin.

What was the final score of Korona Kielce vs Pogon Szczecin?

Korona Kielce 2-2 Pogon Szczecin in the Poland - Ekstraklasa on 17/03/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Korona Kielce vs Pogon Szczecin?

Before kick-off our model rated an Pogon Szczecin win the most likely single outcome at about 42%, with the full match-result split Korona Kielce 30%, draw 28%, Pogon Szczecin 42%. The final score 2-2 went against our main leads this time — single matches are noisy by nature; our accuracy is measured across thousands of predictions, not one result.

✗ Match Result (Pogon Szczecin) ✗ Under 2.5
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