Legia Varşova 3-1 Piast Gliwice — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Poland - Ekstraklasa, 17 Mar 2024

📅17/03/2024 · 🕒19:30 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-0 2nd Score 0-0
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
45%
1.61
Draw
28%
3.54
Away
27%
5.11
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
56%
1.62
Over 2.5
44%
2.18
Both Teams to Score
Yes
44%
2.19
No
56%
1.6
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
32%
2.57
2-3 Goals
40%
1.77
4-5 Goals
19%
4.59
6+ Goals
9%
24.85
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
23%
2.12
1/2
5%
34.5
1/X
9%
17.0
X/1
13%
3.57
X/2
12%
10.65
X/X
14%
4.41
2/1
9%
28.5
2/2
10%
9.52
2/X
5%
18.2
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
💡 For the risk lovers: Home Win ★★ — pattern-based signals at fair odds; informational, not a sized bet.
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
45%
Home Win
58%
-13.6pp
28%
Draw
25%
+3.0pp
27%
Away Win
17%
+10.6pp
56%
Under 2.5
58%
-2.1pp
44%
Over 2.5
42%
+2.1pp
44%
BTTS Yes
42%
+2.2pp
56%
BTTS No
58%
-2.2pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Legia Varşova EU Bookmakers 62%
Head to Head
AWAY Piast Gliwice EU Bookmakers 20%
+1% / +15% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +5% / +10%
2.08/1.01 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.01/1.29
+21% / -1% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -19% / +31%
54% Ball Possession 46%
15 Total Shots 8
6 Shots on Target 3
6 Corners 4
357 · 79% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 270 · 74%
29.0 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 14.2
24.1 Crosses 15.5
2.5 Yellow Cards 3.0
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Legia Varşova
3W-1D-2L
AWAY Piast Gliwice
1.00 Avg Goals (FT) 1.00
1.52 xG 1.43
60% Ball Possession 40%
15 Total Shots 10
3 Shots on Target 2
6 Corners 3
417 Passes 260
83% Pass Accuracy 75%
23 Box Touches 15
22 Crosses 14
2 Yellow Cards 3
16.09.2023 Piast Gliwice Piast Gliwice 1-1 HT 1-0 Legia Varşova Legia Varşova POL
19.02.2023 Piast Gliwice Piast Gliwice 0-1 HT 0-0 Legia Varşova Legia Varşova POL
05.08.2022 Legia Varşova Legia Varşova 2-0 HT 0-0 Piast Gliwice Piast Gliwice POL
18.04.2022 Legia Varşova Legia Varşova 0-1 HT 0-1 Piast Gliwice Piast Gliwice POL
24.10.2021 Piast Gliwice Piast Gliwice 4-1 HT 2-1 Legia Varşova Legia Varşova POL
21.04.2021 Piast Gliwice Piast Gliwice 0-1 HT 0-0 Legia Varşova Legia Varşova POL
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Legia Varşova
3-1
AWAY Piast Gliwice
0.48 xG 1.56
40% Ball Possession 60%
7 Total Shots 13
3 Shots on Target 1
1 Corners 3
268 Passes 425
77% Pass Accuracy 86%
8 Box Touches 30
5 Crosses 28
3 Yellow Cards 2
POST-MATCH Legia Varşova vs Piast Gliwice
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Legia Varşova beat Piast Gliwice 3-1. Half-time: 2-1.

Just as the model leaned, our model had Legia Varşova as the likeliest winner at 45%, and the 3-1 landed on that lead. The goals read — under 2.5 goals (56%), no to both teams scoring (56%) — went the other way, though.

On the day, Legia Varşova had 40% of the ball to Piast Gliwice's 60%, shots finished 7-13, expected goals 0.48 to 1.56 — the balance of chances actually favoured Piast Gliwice.

For context: across their last 6 meetings in our records, Legia Varşova had the better of it with 3 wins, 1 drawn. Those games averaged 1.00 goals for Legia Varşova and 1.00 for Piast Gliwice.

What was the final score of Legia Varşova vs Piast Gliwice?

Legia Varşova 3-1 Piast Gliwice in the Poland - Ekstraklasa on 17/03/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Legia Varşova vs Piast Gliwice?

Before kick-off our model rated a Legia Varşova win the most likely single outcome at about 45%, with the full match-result split Legia Varşova 45%, draw 28%, Piast Gliwice 27%. The final score 3-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Legia Varşova) — while Under 2.5, BTTS No went the other way.

✓ Match Result (Legia Varşova) ✗ Under 2.5 ✗ BTTS No
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