Defensa y Justicia 1-0 Newells Old Boys — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Argentina - Premier League, 17 Apr 2024

📅17/04/2024 · 🕒01:30 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-1 2nd Score 0-1
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
35%
2.33
Draw
30%
3.18
Away
35%
2.69
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
57%
1.71
Over 2.5
43%
2.03
Both Teams to Score
Yes
49%
1.82
No
51%
1.88
Total Goals
0-1 Goal EV+ ✓
32%
2.81
2-3 Goals
41%
1.77
4-5 Goals
19%
4.15
6+ Goals
8%
20.0
Value flag · 0-1 Goal at 2.81 — our 32% vs market 29.7%. Landed.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
12%
3.64
1/2
11%
34.5
1/X
7%
14.25
X/1
17%
4.9
X/2
13%
5.6
X/X
13%
3.85
2/1
6%
33.5
2/2
11%
4.39
2/X
10%
14.4
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
35%
Home Win
39%
-4.0pp
30%
Draw
28%
+2.5pp
35%
Away Win
33%
+1.4pp
57%
Under 2.5
55%
+2.9pp
43%
Over 2.5
45%
-2.9pp
48%
BTTS Yes
51%
-2.4pp
52%
BTTS No
49%
+2.4pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Defensa y Justicia EU Bookmakers 43%
Head to Head
AWAY Newells Old Boys EU Bookmakers 37%
+4% / +1% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +1% / +12%
1.34/1.11 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.14/1.01
+20% / -15% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +15% / +12%
55% Ball Possession 45%
12 Total Shots 11
4 Shots on Target 4
5 Corners 5
325 · 76% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 252 · 70%
20.2 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 17.8
18.0 Crosses 18.5
2.1 Yellow Cards 2.5
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Defensa y Justicia
4W-0D-2L
AWAY Newells Old Boys
1.50 Avg Goals (FT) 0.83
0.85 xG 1.18
46% Ball Possession 54%
7 Total Shots 16
4 Shots on Target 6
2 Corners 7
294 Passes 340
74% Pass Accuracy 81%
9 Box Touches 20
8 Crosses 28
2 Yellow Cards 3
28.11.2023 Newells Old Boys Newells Old Boys 3-0 HT 1-0 Defensa y Justicia Defensa y Justicia ARJ
11.02.2023 Defensa y Justicia Defensa y Justicia 1-0 HT 1-0 Newells Old Boys Newells Old Boys ARJ
26.07.2022 Newells Old Boys Newells Old Boys 1-2 HT 0-1 Defensa y Justicia Defensa y Justicia ARJ
11.02.2022 Newells Old Boys Newells Old Boys 1-0 HT 0-0 Defensa y Justicia Defensa y Justicia ARJ
25.08.2021 Defensa y Justicia Defensa y Justicia 2-0 HT 0-0 Newells Old Boys Newells Old Boys ARJ
14.03.2021 Defensa y Justicia Defensa y Justicia 4-0 HT 2-0 Newells Old Boys Newells Old Boys ARJ
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Defensa y Justicia
1-0
AWAY Newells Old Boys
2.06 xG 1.18
53% Ball Possession 47%
22 Total Shots 8
6 Shots on Target 2
8 Corners 3
295 Passes 244
75% Pass Accuracy 71%
18 Box Touches 21
18 Crosses 21
1 Yellow Cards 4
POST-MATCH Defensa y Justicia vs Newells Old Boys
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Defensa y Justicia nicked a narrow win over Newells Old Boys 1-0. The game was level at 0-0 at the break, so the decisive goals came after it.

We called this one close before kick-off — 35% / 30% / 35% — and on the day Defensa y Justicia made the difference. The goals side of the card held up too — under 2.5 goals (57%) came in.

On the day, Defensa y Justicia had 53% of the ball to Newells Old Boys's 47%, shots finished 22-8, expected goals 2.06 to 1.18.

For context: across their last 6 meetings in our records, Defensa y Justicia had the better of it with 4 wins. Those games averaged 1.50 goals for Defensa y Justicia and 0.83 for Newells Old Boys.

What was the final score of Defensa y Justicia vs Newells Old Boys?

Defensa y Justicia 1-0 Newells Old Boys in the Argentina - Premier League on 17/04/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Defensa y Justicia vs Newells Old Boys?

Before kick-off our model rated a Defensa y Justicia win the most likely single outcome at about 35%, with the full match-result split Defensa y Justicia 35%, draw 30%, Newells Old Boys 35%. The final score 1-0 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Under 2.5, BTTS No — a clean sweep of the main markets.

◐ Match Result — model had it level (35/30/35) ✓ Under 2.5 ✓ BTTS No
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