Porto 3-1 Vitoria Guimaraes — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Portugal - Cup, 17 Apr 2024

📅17/04/2024 · 🕒22:15 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 2-1 2nd Score 3-1
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
53%
1.42
Draw
22%
4.49
Away
25%
5.79
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
44%
2.21
Over 2.5
56%
1.6
Both Teams to Score
Yes
54%
1.81
No
46%
1.9
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
22%
4.36
2-3 Goals
38%
1.88
4-5 Goals
26%
2.96
6+ Goals
14%
8.83
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
29%
1.74
1/2
6%
34.5
1/X
7%
18.25
X/1
16%
3.61
X/2
5%
13.45
X/X
9%
6.69
2/1
8%
21.2
2/2
14%
10.3
2/X
6%
18.8
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
💡 For the risk lovers: Home Win ★★ — pattern-based signals at fair odds; informational, not a sized bet.
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
53%
Home Win
66%
-13.0pp
22%
Draw
19%
+2.8pp
25%
Away Win
14%
+10.2pp
44%
Under 2.5
41%
+3.0pp
56%
Over 2.5
59%
-3.0pp
54%
BTTS Yes
51%
+2.7pp
46%
BTTS No
49%
-2.7pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Porto EU Bookmakers 70%
Head to Head
AWAY Vitoria Guimaraes EU Bookmakers 17%
+6% / +6% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +24% / +24%
2.55/1.66 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.00/1.21
+4% / -42% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -15% / +69%
57% Ball Possession 43%
15 Total Shots 9
6 Shots on Target 4
7 Corners 3
437 · 83% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 280 · 75%
33.0 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area
29.0 Crosses
2.0 Yellow Cards
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Porto
5W-0D-1L
AWAY Vitoria Guimaraes
1.50 Avg Goals (FT) 0.50
1.57 xG 0.77
63% Ball Possession 37%
14 Total Shots 7
5 Shots on Target 2
6 Corners 4
410 Passes 198
81% Pass Accuracy 70%
32 Box Touches 12
19 Crosses 11
3 Yellow Cards 5
07.04.2024 Porto Porto 1-2 HT 1-2 Vitoria Guimaraes Vitoria Guimaraes POR
03.04.2024 Vitoria Guimaraes Vitoria Guimaraes 0-1 HT 0-0 Porto Porto POK
11.11.2023 Vitoria Guimaraes Vitoria Guimaraes 1-2 HT 1-1 Porto Porto POR
27.05.2023 Porto Porto 3-0 HT 3-0 Vitoria Guimaraes Vitoria Guimaraes POR
21.01.2023 Vitoria Guimaraes Vitoria Guimaraes 0-1 HT 0-1 Porto Porto POR
10.04.2022 Vitoria Guimaraes Vitoria Guimaraes 0-1 HT 0-1 Porto Porto POR
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Porto
3-1
AWAY Vitoria Guimaraes
2.15 xG 2.21
53% Ball Possession 47%
13 Total Shots 15
8 Shots on Target 3
11 Corners 1
376 Passes 314
86% Pass Accuracy 81%
33 Box Touches 20
16 Crosses 11
1 Yellow Cards 5
POST-MATCH Porto vs Vitoria Guimaraes
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Porto got the better of Vitoria Guimaraes 3-1. Half-time: 2-1.

As our pre-match numbers suggested, our model had Porto as the likeliest winner at 53%, and the 3-1 landed on that lead. We had also flagged over 2.5 goals (56%), and that read landed as well.

On the day, Porto had 53% of the ball to Vitoria Guimaraes's 47%, shots finished 13-15, expected goals 2.15 to 2.21.

Coming into the game, across their last 6 meetings in our records, Porto had the better of it with 5 wins. Those games averaged 1.50 goals for Porto and 0.50 for Vitoria Guimaraes.

What was the final score of Porto vs Vitoria Guimaraes?

Porto 3-1 Vitoria Guimaraes in the Portugal - Cup on 17/04/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Porto vs Vitoria Guimaraes?

Before kick-off our model rated a Porto win the most likely single outcome at about 53%, with the full match-result split Porto 53%, draw 22%, Vitoria Guimaraes 25%. The final score 3-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Porto), Over 2.5, BTTS Yes — a clean sweep of the main markets.

✓ Match Result (Porto) ✓ Over 2.5 ✓ BTTS Yes
Want to know how this prediction was produced? Read how we price a match →
Want to test this kind of bet across 26 seasons yourself? Open Match Studio →