Brisbane Roar 2-1 Western United — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Australia - A-League, 17 Apr 2025

Brisbane Roar
2-1 HT 2-1
Western United
📅17/04/2025 · 🕒12:35 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-2 ✗ 2nd Score 0-3 ✗
Australia - A-League – 2024/2025

Brisbane Roar vs Western United Prediction — Model Probabilities

MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
21%
3.69
Draw
21%
3.8
Away
58%
1.71
Under/Over 2.5
Under
32%
2.63
Over Pick
68%
1.44
Both Teams to Score
Yes
63%
1.43
No
37%
2.6
Total Goals
0-1
19%
6.02
2-3
38%
2.08
4-5
26%
2.46
6+
17%
5.11
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
11%
6.26
1/2 ✗
9%
18.9
1/X
5%
14.2
X/1
6%
9.64
X/2
11%
4.83
X/X
12%
6.79
2/1
4%
34.0
2/2
38%
2.17
2/X
4%
13.15
Value flag · 1/2 at 18.9 — our 9% vs market 3.0%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
◎
Our Pick
Over 2.5 — 68% ✓
Fair price · no betting value
The bookmaker priced every market fairly — no dependable value at these odds, so skipping is the disciplined play.
Our Pick is our best estimate of the outcome; a value flag is a separate, rarer judgement about the price.
STRENGTH Away Win Over 2.5 BTTS Yes — pattern-based signals at fair odds; informational, not a sized bet.
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
21%
Home Win
23%
-2.0pp
21%
Draw
23%
-1.9pp
58%
Away Win
54%
+3.9pp
32%
Under 2.5
34%
-2.1pp
68%
Over 2.5
66%
+2.1pp
63%
BTTS Yes
66%
-3.1pp
37%
BTTS No
34%
+3.1pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.

Brisbane Roar v Western United — Team-Based Signals

PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Brisbane Roar EU Bookmakers 27%
Head to Head
AWAY Western United EU Bookmakers 58%
-6% / -11% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +22% / +22%
1.50/1.27 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 2.64/1.14
+8% / -10% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +61% / -4%
46% Ball Possession 54%
11 Total Shots 14
4 Shots on Target 5
4 Corners 4
303 · 79% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 445 · 73%
25.8 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 30.9
17.1 Crosses 21.1
1.7 Yellow Cards 1.1

Brisbane Roar vs Western United Head-to-Head — Last 6 Meetings

H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Brisbane Roar
1W-2D-3L
AWAY Western United
1.17 Avg Goals (FT) 1.50
1.40 xG 1.27
50% Ball Possession 50%
14 Total Shots 11
5 Shots on Target 4
4 Corners 6
411 Passes 399
82% Pass Accuracy 82%
24 Box Touches 24
15 Crosses 21
2 Yellow Cards 2
The Meetings
29.12.2024 Western United Western United 1-0 HT 1-0 Brisbane Roar Brisbane Roar AVUS
23.02.2024 Brisbane Roar Brisbane Roar 2-2 HT 0-1 Western United Western United AVUS
15.12.2023 Western United Western United 2-1 HT 0-0 Brisbane Roar Brisbane Roar AVUS
18.03.2023 Brisbane Roar Brisbane Roar 1-0 HT 0-0 Western United Western United AVUS
30.12.2022 Western United Western United 1-1 HT 0-1 Brisbane Roar Brisbane Roar AVUS
26.03.2022 Brisbane Roar Brisbane Roar 2-3 HT 1-1 Western United Western United AVUS

Brisbane Roar 2-1 Western United — Actual Match Statistics

RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Brisbane Roar
2-1
AWAY Western United
1.18 xG 0.57
52% Ball Possession 48%
11 Total Shots 8
4 Shots on Target 2
6 Corners 2
405 Passes 362
82% Pass Accuracy 78%
27 Box Touches 17
11 Crosses 9
3 Yellow Cards 1
POST-MATCH Brisbane Roar vs Western United
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Brisbane Roar edged past Western United 2-1.

This one beat our numbers. Western United carried 58% before kick-off and it didn't land — a reminder that even strong leads lose regularly. We had also flagged over 2.5 goals (68%), both teams to score (63%), and both reads landed as well.

On the day, Brisbane Roar had 52% of the ball to Western United's 48%, shots finished 11-8, expected goals 1.18 to 0.57.

Coming into the game, across their last 6 meetings in our records, Western United led the recent series with 3 wins, 2 drawn. Those games averaged 1.17 goals for Brisbane Roar and 1.50 for Western United.

What was the final score of Brisbane Roar vs Western United?

Brisbane Roar 2-1 Western United in the Australia - A-League on 17/04/2025. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Brisbane Roar vs Western United?

Before kick-off our model rated an Western United win the most likely single outcome at about 58%, with the full match-result split Brisbane Roar 21%, draw 21%, Western United 58%. The final score 2-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Over 2.5, BTTS Yes — while Match Result (Western United) went the other way.

✗ Match Result (Western United) ✓ Over 2.5 ✓ BTTS Yes
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