Roskilde 1-1 HB Koge — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Denmark 1st Division, 17 Apr 2025

Roskilde
1-1 HT 1-0
HB Koge
📅17/04/2025 · 🕒15:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 0-1 ✗ 2nd Score 0-0 ✗
Denmark 1st Division – 2024/2025

Roskilde vs HB Koge Prediction — Model Probabilities

MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
34%
2.33
Draw
27%
3.35
Away
39%
2.69
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
55%
1.9
Over 2.5
45%
1.82
Both Teams to Score
Yes
47%
1.68
No
53%
2.06
Total Goals
0-1 Goal EV+ ✗
30%
3.26
2-3 Goals
38%
1.77
4-5 Goals
22%
3.36
6+ Goals
10%
12.75
Value flag · 0-1 Goal at 3.26 — our 30% vs market 24.3%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
12%
3.54
1/2
8%
29.0
1/X
7%
13.2
X/1
17%
5.5
X/2
8%
6.01
X/X
14%
4.8
2/1
5%
27.0
2/2
23%
4.06
2/X
6%
13.35
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
34%
Home Win
40%
-5.3pp
27%
Draw
27%
+0.1pp
39%
Away Win
34%
+5.2pp
55%
Under 2.5
49%
+6.4pp
45%
Over 2.5
51%
-6.4pp
47%
BTTS Yes
56%
-8.4pp
53%
BTTS No
44%
+8.4pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.

Roskilde v HB Koge — Team-Based Signals

PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Roskilde EU Bookmakers 43%
Head to Head
AWAY HB Koge EU Bookmakers 37%
-18% / -18% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -3% / -2%
1.38/2.22 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.70/1.56
+5% / -39% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -3% / -33%
49% Ball Possession 51%
12 Total Shots 12
5 Shots on Target 4
5 Corners 5
348 · 77% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 356 · 78%
36.9 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 25.9
29.6 Crosses 18.7
2.7 Yellow Cards 2.1

Roskilde vs HB Koge Head-to-Head — Last 6 Meetings

H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Roskilde
1W-1D-4L
AWAY HB Koge
1.17 Avg Goals (FT) 1.83
0.78 xG 1.56
53% Ball Possession 47%
10 Total Shots 11
4 Shots on Target 6
4 Corners 2
388 Passes 275
81% Pass Accuracy 75%
26 Box Touches 18
20 Crosses 9
2 Yellow Cards 3
The Meetings
14.03.2025 HB Koge HB Koge 2-1 HT 0-1 Roskilde Roskilde DAN1
29.09.2024 Roskilde Roskilde 0-2 HT 0-1 HB Koge HB Koge DAN1
14.06.2020 Roskilde Roskilde 2-2 HT 0-1 HB Koge HB Koge DAN1
20.10.2019 HB Koge HB Koge 2-1 HT 1-0 Roskilde Roskilde DAN1
21.08.2019 Roskilde Roskilde 2-3 HT 1-1 HB Koge HB Koge DAN1
07.08.2015 Roskilde Roskilde 1-0 HT 0-0 HB Koge HB Koge DAN1

Roskilde 1-1 HB Koge — Actual Match Statistics

RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Roskilde
1-1
AWAY HB Koge
0.64 xG 0.53
58% Ball Possession 42%
9 Total Shots 8
2 Shots on Target 3
6 Corners 5
356 Passes 245
74% Pass Accuracy 69%
19 Box Touches 12
27 Crosses 15
POST-MATCH Roskilde vs HB Koge
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Roskilde and HB Koge couldn't be separated, finishing 1-1. It was 1-0 at half-time, meaning the result turned around in the second half.

We called this one close before kick-off — 34% / 27% / 39% — and a draw is about as on-script as that read gets. The goals side of the card held up too — under 2.5 goals (55%) came in.

On the day, Roskilde had 58% of the ball to HB Koge's 42%, shots finished 9-8, expected goals 0.64 to 0.53.

For context: across their last 6 meetings in our records, HB Koge led the recent series with 4 wins, 1 drawn. Those games averaged 1.17 goals for Roskilde and 1.83 for HB Koge.

What was the final score of Roskilde vs HB Koge?

Roskilde 1-1 HB Koge in the Denmark 1st Division on 17/04/2025. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Roskilde vs HB Koge?

Before kick-off our model rated an HB Koge win the most likely single outcome at about 39%, with the full match-result split Roskilde 34%, draw 27%, HB Koge 39%. The final score 1-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Under 2.5 — while Match Result (HB Koge), BTTS No went the other way.

✗ Match Result (HB Koge) ✓ Under 2.5 ✗ BTTS No
Want to know how this prediction was produced? Read how we price a match →
Want to test this kind of bet across 26 seasons yourself? Open Match Studio →
DAN1 More Denmark 1st Division
17 Apr 2025
14:00 Odense vs Kolding IF Analysis →
16:00 B93 Kopenhag vs Hillerod Analysis →