Atletico Nacional 4-1 Boyaca Chico — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Colombia - Primera, 17 Apr 2025

📅17/04/2025 · 🕒02:20 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-0 2nd Score 2-0
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
59%
1.27
Draw
25%
4.95
Away
16%
8.9
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
53%
2.03
Over 2.5
47%
1.71
Both Teams to Score
Yes
40%
2.4
No
60%
1.5
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
29%
2-3 Goals
40%
4-5 Goals
22%
6+ Goals
9%
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
31%
1/2
5%
1/X
8%
X/1
21%
X/2
6%
X/X
9%
2/1
8%
2/2
5%
2/X
7%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
59%
Home Win
74%
-15.1pp
25%
Draw
17%
+7.4pp
16%
Away Win
8%
+7.7pp
53%
Under 2.5
45%
+7.9pp
47%
Over 2.5
55%
-7.9pp
40%
BTTS Yes
38%
+2.7pp
60%
BTTS No
62%
-2.7pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Atletico Nacional EU Bookmakers 79%
Head to Head
AWAY Boyaca Chico EU Bookmakers 11%
+1% / -8% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -6% / +7%
1.63/0.73 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 0.64/1.24
+24% / -22% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -25% / -20%
61% Ball Possession 39%
17 Total Shots 8
6 Shots on Target 2
6 Corners 3
404 · 84% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 226 · 72%
21.4 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 10.4
18.0 Crosses 11.8
2.4 Yellow Cards 2.4
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Atletico Nacional
5W-0D-1L
AWAY Boyaca Chico
2.50 Avg Goals (FT) 1.00
1.98 xG 0.56
57% Ball Possession 43%
15 Total Shots 10
6 Shots on Target 3
5 Corners 4
330 Passes 221
79% Pass Accuracy 72%
27 Box Touches 9
18 Crosses 11
2 Yellow Cards 3
17.03.2024 Boyaca Chico Boyaca Chico 2-1 HT 0-1 Atletico Nacional Atletico Nacional KOL
23.10.2023 Boyaca Chico Boyaca Chico 1-3 HT 0-1 Atletico Nacional Atletico Nacional KOL
08.05.2023 Atletico Nacional Atletico Nacional 3-1 HT 2-1 Boyaca Chico Boyaca Chico KOL
07.02.2021 Atletico Nacional Atletico Nacional 2-0 HT 0-0 Boyaca Chico Boyaca Chico KOL
12.02.2020 Boyaca Chico Boyaca Chico 0-3 HT 0-1 Atletico Nacional Atletico Nacional KOL
01.10.2018 Atletico Nacional Atletico Nacional 3-2 HT 1-1 Boyaca Chico Boyaca Chico KOL
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Atletico Nacional
4-1
AWAY Boyaca Chico
2.28 xG 0.32
64% Ball Possession 36%
26 Total Shots 4
12 Shots on Target 1
6 Corners 2
400 Passes 200
83% Pass Accuracy 71%
43 Box Touches 6
16 Crosses 3
0 Yellow Cards 2
POST-MATCH Atletico Nacional vs Boyaca Chico
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Atletico Nacional cruised past Boyaca Chico 4-1. Half-time: 1-0. 5 goals made it one of the day's more open games.

As our pre-match numbers suggested, our model had Atletico Nacional as the likeliest winner at 59%, and the 4-1 landed on that lead. The goals read — no to both teams scoring (60%) — went the other way, though.

On the day, Atletico Nacional had 64% of the ball to Boyaca Chico's 36%, shots finished 26-4, expected goals 2.28 to 0.32.

Coming into the game, across their last 6 meetings in our records, Atletico Nacional had the better of it with 5 wins. Those games averaged 2.50 goals for Atletico Nacional and 1.00 for Boyaca Chico.

What was the final score of Atletico Nacional vs Boyaca Chico?

Atletico Nacional 4-1 Boyaca Chico in the Colombia - Primera on 17/04/2025. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Atletico Nacional vs Boyaca Chico?

Before kick-off our model rated a Atletico Nacional win the most likely single outcome at about 59%, with the full match-result split Atletico Nacional 59%, draw 25%, Boyaca Chico 16%. The final score 4-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Atletico Nacional) — while Under 2.5, BTTS No went the other way.

✓ Match Result (Atletico Nacional) ✗ Under 2.5 ✗ BTTS No
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