Boyaca Chico 2-1 Atletico Nacional — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Colombia - Primera, 17 Mar 2024

📅17/03/2024 · 🕒02:20 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 0-1 2nd Score 0-0
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
29%
3.17
Draw
32%
3.11
Away
39%
2.11
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
62%
1.52
Over 2.5
38%
2.38
Both Teams to Score
Yes
45%
2.09
No
55%
1.66
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
34%
2-3 Goals
41%
4-5 Goals
17%
6+ Goals
8%
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
17%
1/2
9%
1/X
8%
X/1
7%
X/2
15%
X/X
15%
2/1
5%
2/2
15%
2/X
9%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
29%
Home Win
28%
+1.2pp
31%
Draw
29%
+2.8pp
39%
Away Win
43%
-4.0pp
62%
Under 2.5
62%
+0.3pp
38%
Over 2.5
38%
-0.3pp
45%
BTTS Yes
44%
+1.0pp
55%
BTTS No
56%
-1.0pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Boyaca Chico EU Bookmakers 32%
Head to Head
AWAY Atletico Nacional EU Bookmakers 48%
+7% / +4% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -4% / -7%
1.17/0.92 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.30/1.12
+21% / +0% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +7% / -18%
45% Ball Possession 55%
11 Total Shots 13
3 Shots on Target 4
5 Corners 6
254 · 74% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 316 · 78%
16.9 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 18.6
18.9 Crosses 14.0
2.1 Yellow Cards 2.5
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Boyaca Chico
0W-1D-5L
AWAY Atletico Nacional
0.83 Avg Goals (FT) 2.50
0.53 xG 2.44
41% Ball Possession 59%
10 Total Shots 16
3 Shots on Target 6
4 Corners 5
230 Passes 368
74% Pass Accuracy 82%
9 Box Touches 27
11 Crosses 17
3 Yellow Cards 2
23.10.2023 Boyaca Chico Boyaca Chico 1-3 HT 0-1 Atletico Nacional Atletico Nacional KOL
08.05.2023 Atletico Nacional Atletico Nacional 3-1 HT 2-1 Boyaca Chico Boyaca Chico KOL
07.02.2021 Atletico Nacional Atletico Nacional 2-0 HT 0-0 Boyaca Chico Boyaca Chico KOL
12.02.2020 Boyaca Chico Boyaca Chico 0-3 HT 0-1 Atletico Nacional Atletico Nacional KOL
01.10.2018 Atletico Nacional Atletico Nacional 3-2 HT 1-1 Boyaca Chico Boyaca Chico KOL
02.04.2018 Boyaca Chico Boyaca Chico 1-1 HT 1-1 Atletico Nacional Atletico Nacional KOL
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Boyaca Chico
2-1
AWAY Atletico Nacional
0.70 xG 0.13
45% Ball Possession 55%
13 Total Shots 6
5 Shots on Target 1
5 Corners 4
196 Passes 246
71% Pass Accuracy 71%
13 Box Touches 15
16 Crosses 18
2 Yellow Cards 4
POST-MATCH Boyaca Chico vs Atletico Nacional
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Boyaca Chico nicked a narrow win over Atletico Nacional 2-1. It was 0-1 at half-time, meaning the result turned around in the second half.

We called this one close before kick-off — 29% / 31% / 39% — and on the day Boyaca Chico made the difference. The goals read — under 2.5 goals (62%), no to both teams scoring (55%) — went the other way, though.

On the day, Boyaca Chico had 45% of the ball to Atletico Nacional's 55%, shots finished 13-6, expected goals 0.70 to 0.13.

For context: across their last 6 meetings in our records, Atletico Nacional led the recent series with 5 wins, 1 drawn. Those games averaged 0.83 goals for Boyaca Chico and 2.50 for Atletico Nacional.

What was the final score of Boyaca Chico vs Atletico Nacional?

Boyaca Chico 2-1 Atletico Nacional in the Colombia - Primera on 17/03/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Boyaca Chico vs Atletico Nacional?

Before kick-off our model rated an Atletico Nacional win the most likely single outcome at about 39%, with the full match-result split Boyaca Chico 29%, draw 31%, Atletico Nacional 39%. The final score 2-1 went against our main leads this time — single matches are noisy by nature; our accuracy is measured across thousands of predictions, not one result.

✗ Match Result (Atletico Nacional) ✗ Under 2.5 ✗ BTTS No
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