Independiente Medellin 1-2 Once Caldas — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Colombia - Primera, 17 Mar 2024

📅17/03/2024 · 🕒04:30 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-0 2nd Score 0-0
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
39%
2.05
Draw
32%
3.18
Away
29%
3.25
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
64%
1.6
Over 2.5
36%
2.21
Both Teams to Score
Yes
44%
1.96
No
56%
1.75
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
34%
2-3 Goals
42%
4-5 Goals
16%
6+ Goals
8%
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
17%
1/2
6%
1/X
9%
X/1
15%
X/2
9%
X/X
15%
2/1
7%
2/2
14%
2/X
8%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
39%
Home Win
45%
-5.3pp
32%
Draw
28%
+4.1pp
29%
Away Win
27%
+1.2pp
64%
Under 2.5
59%
+5.8pp
36%
Over 2.5
41%
-5.8pp
44%
BTTS Yes
47%
-3.4pp
56%
BTTS No
53%
+3.4pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Independiente Medellin EU Bookmakers 49%
Head to Head
AWAY Once Caldas EU Bookmakers 31%
+7% / +9% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -4% / -3%
1.25/0.92 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.02/1.03
+1% / +20% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -13% / -3%
53% Ball Possession 47%
12 Total Shots 12
4 Shots on Target 4
5 Corners 4
329 · 78% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 267 · 75%
20.0 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 14.3
18.0 Crosses 13.4
2.6 Yellow Cards 2.9
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Independiente Medellin
2W-3D-1L
AWAY Once Caldas
2.00 Avg Goals (FT) 1.50
1.56 xG 1.14
51% Ball Possession 49%
11 Total Shots 13
4 Shots on Target 5
5 Corners 6
314 Passes 289
80% Pass Accuracy 77%
15 Box Touches 15
14 Crosses 22
2 Yellow Cards 3
02.10.2023 Once Caldas Once Caldas 2-2 HT 0-0 Independiente Medellin Independiente Medellin KOL
12.05.2023 Independiente Medellin Independiente Medellin 2-2 HT 2-1 Once Caldas Once Caldas KOL
25.07.2022 Independiente Medellin Independiente Medellin 1-1 HT 1-1 Once Caldas Once Caldas KOL
05.02.2022 Once Caldas Once Caldas 2-1 HT 1-1 Independiente Medellin Independiente Medellin KOL
18.09.2021 Independiente Medellin Independiente Medellin 3-1 HT 0-1 Once Caldas Once Caldas KOL
05.08.2021 Once Caldas Once Caldas 1-3 HT 1-1 Independiente Medellin Independiente Medellin KOLK
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Independiente Medellin
1-2
AWAY Once Caldas
0.66 xG 0.41
57% Ball Possession 43%
19 Total Shots 9
8 Shots on Target 3
5 Corners 4
413 Passes 303
86% Pass Accuracy 84%
21 Box Touches 16
20 Crosses 21
1 Yellow Cards 1
POST-MATCH Independiente Medellin vs Once Caldas
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Once Caldas nicked a narrow win over Independiente Medellin 2-1 away from home. It was 1-0 at half-time, meaning the result turned around in the second half.

We called this one close before kick-off — 39% / 32% / 29% — and on the day Once Caldas made the difference. The goals read — under 2.5 goals (64%), no to both teams scoring (56%) — went the other way, though.

On the day, Independiente Medellin had 57% of the ball to Once Caldas's 43%, shots finished 19-9, expected goals 0.66 to 0.41.

For context: across their last 6 meetings in our records, Independiente Medellin had the better of it with 2 wins, 3 drawn. Those games averaged 2.00 goals for Independiente Medellin and 1.50 for Once Caldas.

What was the final score of Independiente Medellin vs Once Caldas?

Independiente Medellin 1-2 Once Caldas in the Colombia - Primera on 17/03/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Independiente Medellin vs Once Caldas?

Before kick-off our model rated a Independiente Medellin win the most likely single outcome at about 39%, with the full match-result split Independiente Medellin 39%, draw 32%, Once Caldas 29%. The final score 1-2 went against our main leads this time — single matches are noisy by nature; our accuracy is measured across thousands of predictions, not one result.

✗ Match Result (Independiente Medellin) ✗ Under 2.5 ✗ BTTS No
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