Al Mosul 1-1 Baghdad — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Iraq - Premier League, 17 Apr 2026

Al Mosul
1-1 HT 0-0
Baghdad
📅17/04/2026 · 🕒17:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-1 ✓ 2nd Score 1-0 ✗
Iraq - Premier League – 2025/2026

Al Mosul vs Baghdad Prediction — Model Probabilities

MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
53%
1.72
Draw
29%
3.54
Away
18%
4.15
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
55%
1.8
Over 2.5
45%
1.91
Both Teams to Score
Yes
52%
1.88
No
48%
1.82
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
30%
2-3 Goals
38%
4-5 Goals
24%
6+ Goals
8%
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
22%
1/2
6%
1/X
7%
X/1
26%
X/2
6%
X/X
15%
2/1
5%
2/2
6%
2/X
7%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
53%
Home Win
54%
-1.5pp
29%
Draw
25%
+3.9pp
18%
Away Win
21%
-2.4pp
55%
Under 2.5
52%
+3.0pp
45%
Over 2.5
48%
-3.0pp
52%
BTTS Yes
49%
+3.2pp
48%
BTTS No
51%
-3.2pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.

Al Mosul v Baghdad — Team-Based Signals

PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Al Mosul EU Bookmakers 58%
Head to Head
AWAY Baghdad EU Bookmakers 24%
+0% / +0% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -38% / -38%
–/– Expected GoalsScored / Conceded –/–
– / – Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -28% / -41%
54% Ball Possession 46%
12 Total Shots 10
5 Shots on Target 4
5 Corners 4
364 · 78% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 244 · 68%
– Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area –
– Crosses –
– Yellow Cards –
POST-MATCH Al Mosul vs Baghdad
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Al Mosul and Baghdad couldn't be separated, finishing 1-1. Half-time: 0-0.

Our pre-match lean was Al Mosul at 53%, but a lead that slim is closer to a coin-flip than a call — and it fell the other way. We had also flagged under 2.5 goals (55%), and that read landed as well.

What was the final score of Al Mosul vs Baghdad?

Al Mosul 1-1 Baghdad in the Iraq - Premier League on 17/04/2026. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Al Mosul vs Baghdad?

Before kick-off our model rated a Al Mosul win the most likely single outcome at about 53%, with the full match-result split Al Mosul 53%, draw 29%, Baghdad 18%. The final score 1-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Under 2.5, BTTS Yes — while Match Result (Al Mosul) went the other way.

✗ Match Result (Al Mosul) ✓ Under 2.5 ✓ BTTS Yes
Want to know how this prediction was produced? Read how we price a match →
Want to test this kind of bet across 26 seasons yourself? Open Match Studio →
IRAK More Iraq - Premier League
17 Apr 2026
17:00 Al Kahrabaa vs Naft Maysan Analysis →
19:30 Al Karma vs Al Shorta Analysis →