ASO Chlef 4-1 USM Khenchela — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Algeria - 1st Division, 17 May 2024

📅17/05/2024 · 🕒19:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-0 2nd Score 2-0
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
51%
1.57
Draw
25%
3.64
Away
24%
5.11
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
53%
1.82
Over 2.5
47%
1.9
Both Teams to Score
Yes
44%
1.95
No
56%
1.76
Total Goals
0-1 Goal EV+ ✗
32%
3.23
2-3 Goals
37%
1.78
4-5 Goals
22%
3.64
6+ Goals
9%
14.9
Value flag · 0-1 Goal at 3.23 — our 32% vs market 25.4%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
28%
1/2
5%
1/X
10%
X/1
15%
X/2
11%
X/X
9%
2/1
8%
2/2
8%
2/X
6%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
💡 For the risk lovers: Home Win ★★★ — pattern-based signals at fair odds; informational, not a sized bet.
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
51%
Home Win
59%
-8.8pp
25%
Draw
24%
+0.7pp
25%
Away Win
16%
+8.1pp
53%
Under 2.5
51%
+1.9pp
47%
Over 2.5
49%
-1.9pp
44%
BTTS Yes
47%
-2.7pp
56%
BTTS No
53%
+2.7pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME ASO Chlef EU Bookmakers 64%
Head to Head
AWAY USM Khenchela EU Bookmakers 20%
+6% / +5% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -4% / -11%
1.63/0.64 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 0.56/1.51
+2% / -6% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -20% / -9%
55% Ball Possession 45%
14 Total Shots 7
7 Shots on Target 3
6 Corners 3
373 · 80% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 287 · 74%
Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area
Crosses
2.4 Yellow Cards 1.2
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME ASO Chlef
1W-0D-2L
AWAY USM Khenchela
1.00 Avg Goals (FT) 1.33
50% Ball Possession 50%
10 Total Shots 8
6 Shots on Target 2
4 Corners 3
2 Yellow Cards 2
29.12.2023 USM Khenchela USM Khenchela 2-1 HT 0-0 ASO Chlef ASO Chlef CZYR
15.07.2023 ASO Chlef ASO Chlef 2-0 HT 0-0 USM Khenchela USM Khenchela CZYR
24.12.2022 USM Khenchela USM Khenchela 2-0 HT 1-0 ASO Chlef ASO Chlef CZYR
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME ASO Chlef
4-1
AWAY USM Khenchela
53% Ball Possession 47%
12 Total Shots 8
8 Shots on Target 4
6 Corners 3
POST-MATCH ASO Chlef vs USM Khenchela
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

ASO Chlef swept aside USM Khenchela 4-1. Half-time: 2-1. 5 goals made it one of the day's more open games.

As our pre-match numbers suggested, our model had ASO Chlef as the likeliest winner at 51%, and the 4-1 landed on that lead. The goals read — no to both teams scoring (56%) — went the other way, though.

On the day, ASO Chlef had 53% of the ball to USM Khenchela's 47%, shots finished 12-8.

For context: across their last 3 meetings in our records, USM Khenchela led the recent series with 2 wins. Those games averaged 1.00 goals for ASO Chlef and 1.33 for USM Khenchela.

What was the final score of ASO Chlef vs USM Khenchela?

ASO Chlef 4-1 USM Khenchela in the Algeria - 1st Division on 17/05/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for ASO Chlef vs USM Khenchela?

Before kick-off our model rated a ASO Chlef win the most likely single outcome at about 51%, with the full match-result split ASO Chlef 51%, draw 25%, USM Khenchela 25%. The final score 4-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (ASO Chlef) — while Under 2.5, BTTS No went the other way.

✓ Match Result (ASO Chlef) ✗ Under 2.5 ✗ BTTS No
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