Oulu 1-1 IFK Mariehamn — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Finland - Veikkausliiga, 17 May 2024

📅17/05/2024 · 🕒18:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-0 2nd Score 0-1
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
37%
1.96
Draw
27%
3.35
Away
36%
3.34
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
58%
1.78
Over 2.5
42%
1.95
Both Teams to Score
Yes
45%
1.81
No
55%
1.9
Total Goals
0-1 Goal EV+ ✗
31%
3.03
2-3 Goals
40%
1.78
4-5 Goals
21%
3.86
6+ Goals
8%
17.0
Value flag · 0-1 Goal at 3.03 — our 31% vs market 27.3%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
20%
2.77
1/2
7%
34.5
1/X
6%
13.85
X/1
9%
4.38
X/2
9%
7.13
X/X
15%
4.5
2/1
8%
26.0
2/2
20%
5.46
2/X
6%
14.3
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
37%
Home Win
47%
-9.7pp
27%
Draw
26%
+0.7pp
36%
Away Win
26%
+9.0pp
58%
Under 2.5
52%
+5.2pp
42%
Over 2.5
48%
-5.2pp
45%
BTTS Yes
51%
-6.6pp
55%
BTTS No
49%
+6.6pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Oulu EU Bookmakers 51%
Head to Head
AWAY IFK Mariehamn EU Bookmakers 30%
+8% / +14% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +1% / -7%
1.25/1.34 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.20/1.54
+7% / +1% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -8% / -3%
54% Ball Possession 46%
11 Total Shots 8
4 Shots on Target 4
7 Corners 5
403 · 83% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 249 · 74%
20.5 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 21.0
15.4 Crosses 18.7
1.9 Yellow Cards 2.1
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Oulu
5W-0D-1L
AWAY IFK Mariehamn
2.67 Avg Goals (FT) 1.67
1.33 xG 1.46
54% Ball Possession 46%
14 Total Shots 13
6 Shots on Target 5
5 Corners 4
455 Passes 263
86% Pass Accuracy 76%
21 Box Touches 18
16 Crosses 19
1 Yellow Cards 2
16.09.2023 Oulu Oulu 3-2 HT 2-1 IFK Mariehamn IFK Mariehamn FİN
09.07.2023 IFK Mariehamn IFK Mariehamn 1-2 HT 1-1 Oulu Oulu FİN
03.06.2023 Oulu Oulu 3-2 HT 2-0 IFK Mariehamn IFK Mariehamn FİN
28.09.2022 IFK Mariehamn IFK Mariehamn 2-4 HT 0-1 Oulu Oulu FİN
23.07.2022 Oulu Oulu 3-1 HT 2-1 IFK Mariehamn IFK Mariehamn FİN
24.04.2022 IFK Mariehamn IFK Mariehamn 2-1 HT 1-1 Oulu Oulu FİN
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Oulu
1-1
AWAY IFK Mariehamn
1.08 xG 0.32
63% Ball Possession 37%
16 Total Shots 9
6 Shots on Target 4
4 Corners 5
391 Passes 173
76% Pass Accuracy 57%
18 Box Touches 23
24 Crosses 16
3 Yellow Cards 3
POST-MATCH Oulu vs IFK Mariehamn
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Oulu and IFK Mariehamn couldn't be separated, finishing 1-1. It was 1-0 at half-time, meaning the result turned around in the second half.

We called this one close before kick-off — 37% / 27% / 36% — and a draw is about as on-script as that read gets. On goals, under 2.5 goals (58%) landed while no to both teams scoring (55%) missed.

On the day, Oulu had 63% of the ball to IFK Mariehamn's 37%, shots finished 16-9, expected goals 1.08 to 0.32.

Coming into the game, across their last 6 meetings in our records, Oulu had the better of it with 5 wins. Those games averaged 2.67 goals for Oulu and 1.67 for IFK Mariehamn.

What was the final score of Oulu vs IFK Mariehamn?

Oulu 1-1 IFK Mariehamn in the Finland - Veikkausliiga on 17/05/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Oulu vs IFK Mariehamn?

Before kick-off our model rated a Oulu win the most likely single outcome at about 37%, with the full match-result split Oulu 37%, draw 27%, IFK Mariehamn 36%. The final score 1-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Under 2.5 — while Match Result (Oulu), BTTS No went the other way.

✗ Match Result (Oulu) ✓ Under 2.5 ✗ BTTS No
Want to know how this prediction was produced? Read how we price a match →
Want to test this kind of bet across 26 seasons yourself? Open Match Studio →
FİN More Finland - Veikkausliiga
17 May 2024
18:00 HJK Helsinki vs VPS Analysis →
19:00 SJK Seinajoki vs Inter Turku Analysis →
20:00 Ilves Tampere vs Haka Analysis →