Istra 1961 2-0 NK Varazdin — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Croatia - 1. HNL, 17 May 2024

📅17/05/2024 · 🕒19:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 0-0 2nd Score 1-0
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
45%
2.02
Draw
29%
3.11
Away
26%
3.34
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
62%
1.64
Over 2.5
38%
2.15
Both Teams to Score
Yes
38%
1.9
No
62%
1.81
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
38%
2-3 Goals
39%
4-5 Goals
16%
6+ Goals
7%
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
21%
1/2
6%
1/X
6%
X/1
17%
X/2
6%
X/X
17%
2/1
7%
2/2
14%
2/X
6%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
💡 For the risk lovers: Under 2.5 ★★★ — pattern-based signals at fair odds; informational, not a sized bet.
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
45%
Home Win
45%
-0.5pp
30%
Draw
28%
+1.1pp
26%
Away Win
26%
-0.6pp
62%
Under 2.5
57%
+5.2pp
38%
Over 2.5
43%
-5.2pp
38%
BTTS Yes
49%
-10.6pp
62%
BTTS No
51%
+10.6pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Istra 1961 EU Bookmakers 50%
Head to Head
AWAY NK Varazdin EU Bookmakers 30%
-1% / +6% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +13% / +12%
1.21/0.77 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.10/1.37
+0% / +33% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +14% / -2%
50% Ball Possession 50%
13 Total Shots 10
5 Shots on Target 3
5 Corners 4
309 · 75% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 306 · 75%
17.2 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 18.5
16.9 Crosses 16.3
2.1 Yellow Cards 1.8
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Istra 1961
2W-2D-2L
AWAY NK Varazdin
1.50 Avg Goals (FT) 1.17
0.81 xG 0.85
49% Ball Possession 51%
9 Total Shots 11
4 Shots on Target 2
3 Corners 4
309 Passes 331
78% Pass Accuracy 78%
17 Box Touches 18
12 Crosses 20
2 Yellow Cards 2
08.03.2024 NK Varazdin NK Varazdin 2-2 HT 2-1 Istra 1961 Istra 1961 HIR
11.01.2024 NK Varazdin NK Varazdin 1-3 HT 0-2 Istra 1961 Istra 1961 ARK
05.12.2023 NK Varazdin NK Varazdin 3-2 HT 1-1 Istra 1961 Istra 1961 HIRK
01.12.2023 Istra 1961 Istra 1961 2-0 HT 1-0 NK Varazdin NK Varazdin HIR
17.09.2023 NK Varazdin NK Varazdin 1-0 HT 0-0 Istra 1961 Istra 1961 HIR
16.04.2023 NK Varazdin NK Varazdin 0-0 HT 0-0 Istra 1961 Istra 1961 HIR
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Istra 1961
2-0
AWAY NK Varazdin
0.77 xG 1.04
47% Ball Possession 53%
9 Total Shots 9
3 Shots on Target 2
1 Corners 3
207 Passes 237
61% Pass Accuracy 63%
25 Box Touches 18
10 Crosses 14
3 Yellow Cards 2
POST-MATCH Istra 1961 vs NK Varazdin
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Istra 1961 saw off NK Varazdin 2-0. The game was level at 0-0 at the break, so the decisive goals came after it.

Just as the model leaned, our model had Istra 1961 as the likeliest winner at 45%, and the 2-0 landed on that lead. The goals side of the card held up too — under 2.5 goals (62%), no to both teams scoring (62%) came in.

On the day, Istra 1961 had 47% of the ball to NK Varazdin's 53%, shots finished 9-9, expected goals 0.77 to 1.04.

Coming into the game, across their last 6 meetings in our records, honours were even at 2 apiece, 2 drawn. Those games averaged 1.50 goals for Istra 1961 and 1.17 for NK Varazdin.

What was the final score of Istra 1961 vs NK Varazdin?

Istra 1961 2-0 NK Varazdin in the Croatia - 1. HNL on 17/05/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Istra 1961 vs NK Varazdin?

Before kick-off our model rated a Istra 1961 win the most likely single outcome at about 45%, with the full match-result split Istra 1961 45%, draw 30%, NK Varazdin 26%. The final score 2-0 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Istra 1961), Under 2.5, BTTS No — a clean sweep of the main markets.

✓ Match Result (Istra 1961) ✓ Under 2.5 ✓ BTTS No
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