Paradou 3-1 USM Alger — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Algeria - 1st Division, 17 May 2025

📅17/05/2025 · 🕒21:30 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-0 2nd Score 0-0
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
37%
3.29
Draw
27%
3.11
Away
36%
2.11
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
61%
1.62
Over 2.5
39%
2.18
Both Teams to Score
Yes
40%
1.95
No
60%
1.76
Total Goals
0-1 Goal EV+ ✗
36%
2.46
2-3 Goals
39%
1.74
4-5 Goals
16%
4.4
6+ Goals
9%
23.3
Value flag · 0-1 Goal at 2.46 — our 36% vs market 33.2%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
12%
1/2
5%
1/X
8%
X/1
19%
X/2
14%
X/X
14%
2/1
6%
2/2
17%
2/X
5%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
37%
Home Win
27%
+9.4pp
27%
Draw
29%
-1.7pp
36%
Away Win
44%
-7.6pp
60%
Under 2.5
58%
+2.6pp
40%
Over 2.5
42%
-2.6pp
40%
BTTS Yes
47%
-7.2pp
60%
BTTS No
53%
+7.3pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Paradou EU Bookmakers 30%
Head to Head
AWAY USM Alger EU Bookmakers 48%
-25% / -25% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -5% / -8%
0.95/1.83 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.20/0.91
+10% / -37% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -7% / -17%
48% Ball Possession 52%
10 Total Shots 10
4 Shots on Target 4
4 Corners 4
242 · 78% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 358 · 82%
Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area
Crosses
2.6 Yellow Cards 2.6
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Paradou
2W-1D-3L
AWAY USM Alger
1.67 Avg Goals (FT) 1.33
44% Ball Possession 56%
10 Total Shots 11
6 Shots on Target 6
4 Corners 7
2 Yellow Cards 3
28.01.2025 USM Alger USM Alger 1-1 HT 0-1 Paradou Paradou CZYR
11.02.2024 USM Alger USM Alger 1-5 HT 0-2 Paradou Paradou CZYR
27.09.2023 Paradou Paradou 1-0 HT 0-0 USM Alger USM Alger CZYR
25.10.2022 USM Alger USM Alger 2-1 HT 2-0 Paradou Paradou CZYR
25.01.2022 USM Alger USM Alger 2-1 HT 2-1 Paradou Paradou CZYR
09.08.2021 USM Alger USM Alger 2-1 HT 1-0 Paradou Paradou CZYR
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Paradou
3-1
AWAY USM Alger
34% Ball Possession 66%
14 Total Shots 15
7 Shots on Target 6
5 Corners 13
1 Yellow Cards 0
POST-MATCH Paradou vs USM Alger
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Paradou got the better of USM Alger 3-1. Half-time: 2-0.

Our pre-match split (37% / 27% / 36%) promised a tight game; Paradou found the edge the numbers couldn't. The goals read — under 2.5 goals (60%), no to both teams scoring (60%) — went the other way, though.

On the day, Paradou had 34% of the ball to USM Alger's 66%, shots finished 14-15.

For context: across their last 6 meetings in our records, USM Alger led the recent series with 3 wins, 1 drawn. Those games averaged 1.67 goals for Paradou and 1.33 for USM Alger.

What was the final score of Paradou vs USM Alger?

Paradou 3-1 USM Alger in the Algeria - 1st Division on 17/05/2025. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Paradou vs USM Alger?

Before kick-off our model rated a Paradou win the most likely single outcome at about 37%, with the full match-result split Paradou 37%, draw 27%, USM Alger 36%. The final score 3-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Paradou) — while Under 2.5, BTTS No went the other way.

✓ Match Result (Paradou) ✗ Under 2.5 ✗ BTTS No
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