CA Penarol 1-1 Racing Club Montevideo — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Uruguay - Premier League, 17 Jun 2024

📅17/06/2024 · 🕒00:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-0 2nd Score 1-1
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
50%
1.64
Draw
22%
3.64
Away
28%
4.47
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
50%
1.75
Over 2.5
50%
1.97
Both Teams to Score
Yes
49%
1.96
No
51%
1.75
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
27%
2-3 Goals
41%
4-5 Goals
22%
6+ Goals
10%
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
17%
1/2
9%
1/X
9%
X/1
22%
X/2
5%
X/X
7%
2/1
11%
2/2
14%
2/X
6%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
50%
Home Win
57%
-6.9pp
22%
Draw
24%
-1.7pp
28%
Away Win
19%
+8.6pp
50%
Under 2.5
53%
-3.7pp
50%
Over 2.5
47%
+3.7pp
49%
BTTS Yes
47%
+2.1pp
51%
BTTS No
53%
-2.1pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME CA Penarol EU Bookmakers 61%
Head to Head
AWAY Racing Club Montevideo EU Bookmakers 22%
+2% / +5% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -5% / -5%
1.56/0.70 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 0.81/1.48
-7% / +30% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -16% / -6%
55% Ball Possession 45%
14 Total Shots 12
6 Shots on Target 5
6 Corners 4
337 · 78% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 206 · 69%
Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area
Crosses
2.4 Yellow Cards 2.3
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME CA Penarol
3W-3D-0L
AWAY Racing Club Montevideo
2.17 Avg Goals (FT) 1.33
56% Ball Possession 44%
10 Total Shots 10
4 Shots on Target 5
7 Corners 5
3 Yellow Cards 3
17.03.2024 Racing Club Montevideo Racing Club Montevideo 1-2 HT 0-2 CA Penarol CA Penarol URU
03.12.2023 CA Penarol CA Penarol 1-1 HT 0-0 Racing Club Montevideo Racing Club Montevideo URU
09.05.2023 Racing Club Montevideo Racing Club Montevideo 0-2 HT 0-0 CA Penarol CA Penarol URU
17.10.2019 Racing Club Montevideo Racing Club Montevideo 3-3 HT 1-1 CA Penarol CA Penarol URU
20.09.2015 CA Penarol CA Penarol 3-1 HT 1-0 Racing Club Montevideo Racing Club Montevideo URU
07.06.2015 Racing Club Montevideo Racing Club Montevideo 2-2 HT 0-1 CA Penarol CA Penarol URU
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME CA Penarol
1-1
AWAY Racing Club Montevideo
54% Ball Possession 46%
11 Total Shots 9
4 Shots on Target 3
8 Corners 3
3 Yellow Cards 3
POST-MATCH CA Penarol vs Racing Club Montevideo
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

CA Penarol and Racing Club Montevideo couldn't be separated, finishing 1-1. Half-time: 0-0.

Our pre-match lean was CA Penarol at 50%, but a lead that slim is closer to a coin-flip than a call — and it fell the other way.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 50% and both teams to score was close to even at 49%.

On the day, CA Penarol had 54% of the ball to Racing Club Montevideo's 46%, shots finished 11-9.

For context: across their last 6 meetings in our records, CA Penarol had the better of it with 3 wins, 3 drawn. Those games averaged 2.17 goals for CA Penarol and 1.33 for Racing Club Montevideo.

What was the final score of CA Penarol vs Racing Club Montevideo?

CA Penarol 1-1 Racing Club Montevideo in the Uruguay - Premier League on 17/06/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for CA Penarol vs Racing Club Montevideo?

Before kick-off our model rated a CA Penarol win the most likely single outcome at about 50%, with the full match-result split CA Penarol 50%, draw 22%, Racing Club Montevideo 28%. The final score 1-1 went against our main leads this time — single matches are noisy by nature; our accuracy is measured across thousands of predictions, not one result.

✗ Match Result (CA Penarol) ✗ BTTS No
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