Al Nejmeh 4-1 Tadamon Sour — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Lebanon - Premier League, 17 Jul 2025

📅17/07/2025 · 🕒16:30 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 3-0 2nd Score 3-1
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
62%
1.27
Draw
17%
5.71
Away
21%
7.37
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
41%
2.23
Over 2.5
59%
1.59
Both Teams to Score
Yes
50%
1.66
No
50%
2.09
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
20%
2-3 Goals
36%
4-5 Goals
27%
6+ Goals
17%
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
42%
1/2
3%
1/X
7%
X/1
12%
X/2
9%
X/X
7%
2/1
8%
2/2
9%
2/X
3%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
62%
Home Win
74%
-12.2pp
17%
Draw
15%
+2.3pp
21%
Away Win
11%
+9.9pp
41%
Under 2.5
41%
-0.3pp
59%
Over 2.5
59%
+0.3pp
50%
BTTS Yes
56%
-6.4pp
50%
BTTS No
44%
+6.4pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Al Nejmeh EU Bookmakers 79%
Head to Head
AWAY Tadamon Sour EU Bookmakers 14%
+5% / +5% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -1% / -1%
2.44/0.42 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 0.91/3.31
-8% / +78% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +27% / -34%
57% Ball Possession 43%
17 Total Shots 9
7 Shots on Target 3
7 Corners 4
467 · 84% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 286 · 75%
Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area
Crosses
Yellow Cards
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Al Nejmeh
2W-1D-0L
AWAY Tadamon Sour
2.33 Avg Goals (FT) 0.67
21.06.2025 Al Nejmeh Al Nejmeh 5-1 HT 3-1 Tadamon Sour Tadamon Sour LUBN
07.05.2025 Tadamon Sour Tadamon Sour 1-1 HT 0-1 Al Nejmeh Al Nejmeh LUBN
07.02.2025 Al Nejmeh Al Nejmeh 1-0 HT 0-0 Tadamon Sour Tadamon Sour LUBN
POST-MATCH Al Nejmeh vs Tadamon Sour
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Al Nejmeh ran out comfortable winners over Tadamon Sour 4-1. It was 0-1 at half-time, meaning the result turned around in the second half. 5 goals made it one of the day's more open games.

As our pre-match numbers suggested, our model had Al Nejmeh as the likeliest winner at 62%, and the 4-1 landed on that lead. We had also flagged over 2.5 goals (59%), and that read landed as well.

For context: across their last 3 meetings in our records, Al Nejmeh had the better of it with 2 wins, 1 drawn. Those games averaged 2.33 goals for Al Nejmeh and 0.67 for Tadamon Sour.

What was the final score of Al Nejmeh vs Tadamon Sour?

Al Nejmeh 4-1 Tadamon Sour in the Lebanon - Premier League on 17/07/2025. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Al Nejmeh vs Tadamon Sour?

Before kick-off our model rated a Al Nejmeh win the most likely single outcome at about 62%, with the full match-result split Al Nejmeh 62%, draw 17%, Tadamon Sour 21%. The final score 4-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Al Nejmeh), Over 2.5 — a clean sweep of the main markets.

✓ Match Result (Al Nejmeh) ✓ Over 2.5
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