Hartford Athletic 0-1 Tampa Bay Rowdies — Result, Statistics & Match Review — USL Championship, 17 Jul 2025

📅17/07/2025 · 🕒02:30 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-0 2nd Score 1-1
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
41%
2.12
Draw
26%
3.35
Away
33%
2.94
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
52%
1.97
Over 2.5
48%
1.75
Both Teams to Score
Yes
49%
1.63
No
51%
2.13
Total Goals
0-1 Goal EV+ ✓
31%
3.52
2-3 Goals
37%
1.79
4-5 Goals
23%
3.17
6+ Goals
9%
11.05
Value flag · 0-1 Goal at 3.52 — our 31% vs market 22.2%. Landed.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
17%
1/2
7%
1/X
7%
X/1
16%
X/2
12%
X/X
13%
2/1
8%
2/2
14%
2/X
6%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
41%
Home Win
43%
-2.0pp
26%
Draw
26%
-0.1pp
32%
Away Win
30%
+2.1pp
52%
Under 2.5
47%
+5.5pp
48%
Over 2.5
53%
-5.5pp
49%
BTTS Yes
57%
-8.0pp
51%
BTTS No
43%
+8.0pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Hartford Athletic EU Bookmakers 47%
Head to Head
AWAY Tampa Bay Rowdies EU Bookmakers 34%
-3% / -23% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -11% / -20%
1.49/1.53 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.16/1.30
+15% / -26% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -26% / +8%
53% Ball Possession 47%
13 Total Shots 12
4 Shots on Target 4
5 Corners 4
330 · 78% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 282 · 75%
19.6 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 19.1
17.3 Crosses 17.0
2.8 Yellow Cards 1.8
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Hartford Athletic
0W-2D-4L
AWAY Tampa Bay Rowdies
1.00 Avg Goals (FT) 1.83
0.87 xG 1.28
45% Ball Possession 55%
9 Total Shots 11
2 Shots on Target 4
3 Corners 6
347 Passes 429
81% Pass Accuracy 85%
13 Box Touches 24
13 Crosses 23
3 Yellow Cards 3
24.10.2024 Tampa Bay Rowdies Tampa Bay Rowdies 2-2 HT 1-2 Hartford Athletic Hartford Athletic USLP
22.06.2024 Hartford Athletic Hartford Athletic 0-1 HT 0-0 Tampa Bay Rowdies Tampa Bay Rowdies USLP
28.09.2023 Hartford Athletic Hartford Athletic 0-2 HT 0-2 Tampa Bay Rowdies Tampa Bay Rowdies USLP
03.09.2023 Tampa Bay Rowdies Tampa Bay Rowdies 2-1 HT 1-1 Hartford Athletic Hartford Athletic USLP
10.07.2022 Hartford Athletic Hartford Athletic 2-3 HT 0-1 Tampa Bay Rowdies Tampa Bay Rowdies USLP
27.03.2022 Tampa Bay Rowdies Tampa Bay Rowdies 1-1 HT 1-1 Hartford Athletic Hartford Athletic USLP
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Hartford Athletic
0-1
AWAY Tampa Bay Rowdies
1.75 xG 0.42
56% Ball Possession 44%
14 Total Shots 4
3 Shots on Target 2
4 Corners 6
291 Passes 227
78% Pass Accuracy 76%
28 Box Touches 8
28 Crosses 12
0 Yellow Cards 4
POST-MATCH Hartford Athletic vs Tampa Bay Rowdies
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Tampa Bay Rowdies nicked a narrow win over Hartford Athletic 1-0 away from home. The game was level at 0-0 at the break, so the decisive goals came after it.

Our pre-match lean was Hartford Athletic at 41%, but a lead that slim is closer to a coin-flip than a call — and it fell the other way.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 48% and both teams to score was close to even at 49%.

On the day, Hartford Athletic had 56% of the ball to Tampa Bay Rowdies's 44%, shots finished 14-4, expected goals 1.75 to 0.42 — the balance of chances actually favoured Hartford Athletic.

For context: across their last 6 meetings in our records, Tampa Bay Rowdies led the recent series with 4 wins, 2 drawn. Those games averaged 1.00 goals for Hartford Athletic and 1.83 for Tampa Bay Rowdies.

What was the final score of Hartford Athletic vs Tampa Bay Rowdies?

Hartford Athletic 0-1 Tampa Bay Rowdies in the USL Championship on 17/07/2025. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Hartford Athletic vs Tampa Bay Rowdies?

Before kick-off our model rated a Hartford Athletic win the most likely single outcome at about 41%, with the full match-result split Hartford Athletic 41%, draw 26%, Tampa Bay Rowdies 32%. The final score 0-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Under 2.5, BTTS No — while Match Result (Hartford Athletic) went the other way.

✗ Match Result (Hartford Athletic) ✓ Under 2.5 ✓ BTTS No
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