FC Tulsa 2-1 Monterey Bay — Result, Statistics & Match Review — USL Championship, 17 Jul 2025

📅17/07/2025 · 🕒03:30 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-0 2nd Score 0-0
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
50%
1.49
Draw
28%
3.94
Away
22%
5.27
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
52%
1.82
Over 2.5
48%
1.9
Both Teams to Score
Yes
45%
2.03
No
55%
1.7
Total Goals
0-1 Goal EV+ ✗
29%
3.03
2-3 Goals
39%
1.75
4-5 Goals
22%
3.56
6+ Goals
10%
14.7
Value flag · 0-1 Goal at 3.03 — our 29% vs market 26.3%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
22%
1/2
6%
1/X
8%
X/1
19%
X/2
8%
X/X
15%
2/1
9%
2/2
8%
2/X
5%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
50%
Home Win
62%
-12.5pp
28%
Draw
22%
+6.2pp
22%
Away Win
16%
+6.2pp
52%
Under 2.5
51%
+0.7pp
48%
Over 2.5
49%
-0.7pp
45%
BTTS Yes
45%
+0.2pp
55%
BTTS No
55%
-0.2pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME FC Tulsa EU Bookmakers 67%
Head to Head
AWAY Monterey Bay EU Bookmakers 19%
+11% / +15% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +5% / +9%
1.73/1.15 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 0.86/1.54
+19% / -20% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -16% / +15%
54% Ball Possession 46%
14 Total Shots 9
6 Shots on Target 3
5 Corners 3
347 · 79% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 304 · 76%
25.9 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 14.9
19.4 Crosses 16.2
2.5 Yellow Cards 2.1
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME FC Tulsa
2W-2D-0L
AWAY Monterey Bay
1.00 Avg Goals (FT) 0.25
1.15 xG 1.88
44% Ball Possession 55%
9 Total Shots 16
5 Shots on Target 4
2 Corners 6
320 Passes 396
78% Pass Accuracy 82%
18 Box Touches 31
9 Crosses 24
2 Yellow Cards 2
27.10.2024 FC Tulsa FC Tulsa 2-1 HT 2-0 Monterey Bay Monterey Bay USLP
14.07.2024 Monterey Bay Monterey Bay 0-0 HT 0-0 FC Tulsa FC Tulsa USLP
01.06.2023 Monterey Bay Monterey Bay 0-0 HT 0-0 FC Tulsa FC Tulsa USLP
13.10.2022 FC Tulsa FC Tulsa 2-0 HT 1-0 Monterey Bay Monterey Bay USLP
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME FC Tulsa
2-1
AWAY Monterey Bay
2.50 xG 1.93
58% Ball Possession 42%
14 Total Shots 16
4 Shots on Target 2
7 Corners 8
286 Passes 190
79% Pass Accuracy 73%
28 Box Touches 15
23 Crosses 16
4 Yellow Cards 0
POST-MATCH FC Tulsa vs Monterey Bay
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

FC Tulsa nicked a narrow win over Monterey Bay 2-1. It was 0-1 at half-time, meaning the result turned around in the second half.

As we highlighted before kick-off, our model had FC Tulsa as the likeliest winner at 50%, and the 2-1 landed on that lead. The goals read — no to both teams scoring (55%) — went the other way, though.

On the day, FC Tulsa had 58% of the ball to Monterey Bay's 42%, shots finished 14-16, expected goals 2.50 to 1.93.

For context: across their last 4 meetings in our records, FC Tulsa had the better of it with 2 wins, 2 drawn. Those games averaged 1.00 goals for FC Tulsa and 0.25 for Monterey Bay.

What was the final score of FC Tulsa vs Monterey Bay?

FC Tulsa 2-1 Monterey Bay in the USL Championship on 17/07/2025. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for FC Tulsa vs Monterey Bay?

Before kick-off our model rated a FC Tulsa win the most likely single outcome at about 50%, with the full match-result split FC Tulsa 50%, draw 28%, Monterey Bay 22%. The final score 2-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (FC Tulsa) — while Under 2.5, BTTS No went the other way.

✓ Match Result (FC Tulsa) ✗ Under 2.5 ✗ BTTS No
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