FC Tulsa 2-1 Monterey Bay — Result, Statistics & Match Review — USL Championship, 27 Oct 2024

📅27/10/2024 · 🕒04:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-1 2nd Score 1-0
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
39%
1.96
Draw
25%
3.45
Away
36%
3.25
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
53%
1.91
Over 2.5
47%
1.8
Both Teams to Score
Yes
51%
1.73
No
49%
1.99
Total Goals
0-1 Goal EV+ ✗
27%
3.4
2-3 Goals
43%
1.79
4-5 Goals
22%
3.49
6+ Goals
8%
13.5
Value flag · 0-1 Goal at 3.4 — our 27% vs market 24.0%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
21%
1/2
4%
1/X
13%
X/1
11%
X/2
19%
X/X
7%
2/1
6%
2/2
13%
2/X
6%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
38%
Home Win
47%
-8.7pp
25%
Draw
26%
-0.3pp
36%
Away Win
27%
+9.0pp
53%
Under 2.5
48%
+4.9pp
47%
Over 2.5
52%
-4.9pp
51%
BTTS Yes
54%
-2.8pp
49%
BTTS No
46%
+2.8pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME FC Tulsa EU Bookmakers 51%
Head to Head
AWAY Monterey Bay EU Bookmakers 31%
-6% / -8% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +0% / -2%
1.57/1.30 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 0.95/1.44
-20% / +5% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -19% / -16%
51% Ball Possession 49%
13 Total Shots 11
5 Shots on Target 4
5 Corners 5
352 · 79% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 318 · 77%
22.8 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 15.1
21.3 Crosses 17.8
2.5 Yellow Cards 2.5
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME FC Tulsa
1W-2D-0L
AWAY Monterey Bay
0.67 Avg Goals (FT) 0.00
0.80 xG 1.82
47% Ball Possession 53%
7 Total Shots 15
4 Shots on Target 5
1 Corners 7
327 Passes 361
76% Pass Accuracy 79%
15 Box Touches 30
8 Crosses 24
2 Yellow Cards 2
14.07.2024 Monterey Bay Monterey Bay 0-0 HT 0-0 FC Tulsa FC Tulsa USLP
01.06.2023 Monterey Bay Monterey Bay 0-0 HT 0-0 FC Tulsa FC Tulsa USLP
13.10.2022 FC Tulsa FC Tulsa 2-0 HT 1-0 Monterey Bay Monterey Bay USLP
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME FC Tulsa
2-1
AWAY Monterey Bay
2.21 xG 2.07
38% Ball Possession 62%
13 Total Shots 20
6 Shots on Target 4
3 Corners 6
297 Passes 499
84% Pass Accuracy 88%
27 Box Touches 34
11 Crosses 24
0 Yellow Cards 1
POST-MATCH FC Tulsa vs Monterey Bay
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

FC Tulsa squeezed past Monterey Bay 2-1. Half-time: 2-0.

We called this one close before kick-off — 38% / 25% / 36% — and on the day FC Tulsa made the difference.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 47% and both teams to score was close to even at 51%.

On the day, FC Tulsa had 38% of the ball to Monterey Bay's 62%, shots finished 13-20, expected goals 2.21 to 2.07.

Coming into the game, across their last 3 meetings in our records, FC Tulsa had the better of it with 1 wins, 2 drawn. Those games averaged 0.67 goals for FC Tulsa and 0.00 for Monterey Bay.

What was the final score of FC Tulsa vs Monterey Bay?

FC Tulsa 2-1 Monterey Bay in the USL Championship on 27/10/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for FC Tulsa vs Monterey Bay?

Before kick-off our model rated a FC Tulsa win the most likely single outcome at about 38%, with the full match-result split FC Tulsa 38%, draw 25%, Monterey Bay 36%. The final score 2-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (FC Tulsa), BTTS Yes — while Under 2.5 went the other way.

✓ Match Result (FC Tulsa) ✗ Under 2.5 ✓ BTTS Yes
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