Louisville City 4-1 Phoenix Rising — Result, Statistics & Match Review — USL Championship, 27 Oct 2024

📅27/10/2024 · 🕒02:30 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 2-1 2nd Score 3-0
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
63%
1.42
Draw
21%
4.34
Away
16%
5.79
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
46%
2.18
Over 2.5
54%
1.62
Both Teams to Score
Yes
49%
1.85
No
51%
1.85
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
25%
4.19
2-3 Goals
39%
1.86
4-5 Goals
24%
3.02
6+ Goals
12%
9.39
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
36%
1/2
4%
1/X
4%
X/1
21%
X/2
6%
X/X
7%
2/1
6%
2/2
6%
2/X
10%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
63%
Home Win
66%
-3.5pp
21%
Draw
20%
+1.6pp
16%
Away Win
14%
+1.9pp
46%
Under 2.5
42%
+3.7pp
54%
Over 2.5
58%
-3.7pp
49%
BTTS Yes
50%
-1.1pp
51%
BTTS No
50%
+1.1pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Louisville City EU Bookmakers 70%
Head to Head
AWAY Phoenix Rising EU Bookmakers 17%
+4% / +15% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +17% / +22%
2.01/0.94 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.02/1.41
+19% / -10% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +1% / +29%
55% Ball Possession 45%
15 Total Shots 9
6 Shots on Target 3
6 Corners 4
381 · 80% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 296 · 76%
26.6 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 20.7
22.2 Crosses 13.8
2.1 Yellow Cards 3.6
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Louisville City
1W-2D-0L
AWAY Phoenix Rising
1.00 Avg Goals (FT) 0.67
1.42 xG 1.55
56% Ball Possession 44%
14 Total Shots 13
5 Shots on Target 4
6 Corners 7
342 Passes 250
81% Pass Accuracy 75%
22 Box Touches 18
19 Crosses 19
1 Yellow Cards 2
18.06.2023 Phoenix Rising Phoenix Rising 2-2 HT 1-1 Louisville City Louisville City USLP
21.07.2022 Louisville City Louisville City 0-0 HT 0-0 Phoenix Rising Phoenix Rising USLP
09.11.2018 Louisville City Louisville City 1-0 HT 0-0 Phoenix Rising Phoenix Rising USLP
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Louisville City
4-1
AWAY Phoenix Rising
2.87 xG 1.41
32% Ball Possession 68%
25 Total Shots 9
5 Shots on Target 3
6 Corners 1
256 Passes 610
87% Pass Accuracy 90%
30 Box Touches 20
23 Crosses 12
0 Yellow Cards 1
POST-MATCH Louisville City vs Phoenix Rising
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Louisville City ran out comfortable winners over Phoenix Rising 4-1. Half-time: 2-1. 5 goals made it one of the day's more open games.

Just as the model leaned, our model had Louisville City as the likeliest winner at 63%, and the 4-1 landed on that lead.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 54% and both teams to score was close to even at 49%.

On the day, Louisville City had 32% of the ball to Phoenix Rising's 68%, shots finished 25-9, expected goals 2.87 to 1.41.

For context: across their last 3 meetings in our records, Louisville City had the better of it with 1 wins, 2 drawn. Those games averaged 1.00 goals for Louisville City and 0.67 for Phoenix Rising.

What was the final score of Louisville City vs Phoenix Rising?

Louisville City 4-1 Phoenix Rising in the USL Championship on 27/10/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Louisville City vs Phoenix Rising?

Before kick-off our model rated a Louisville City win the most likely single outcome at about 63%, with the full match-result split Louisville City 63%, draw 21%, Phoenix Rising 16%. The final score 4-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Louisville City), Over 2.5 — while BTTS No went the other way.

✓ Match Result (Louisville City) ✓ Over 2.5 ✗ BTTS No
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