Jablonec 1-2 Sparta Prag — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Czech Republic - Czech Liga, 17 Aug 2024

📅17/08/2024 · 🕒21:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 0-1 2nd Score 1-1
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
28%
4.04
Draw
24%
3.54
Away
48%
1.74
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
48%
1.95
Over 2.5
52%
1.78
Both Teams to Score
Yes
52%
1.75
No
48%
1.96
Total Goals
0-1 Goal EV+ ✗
25%
3.57
2-3 Goals
41%
1.8
4-5 Goals
24%
3.36
6+ Goals
10%
12.35
Value flag · 0-1 Goal at 3.57 — our 25% vs market 22.7%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
12%
1/2
10%
1/X
9%
X/1
10%
X/2
26%
X/X
8%
2/1
6%
2/2
12%
2/X
7%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
💡 For the risk lovers: Away Win ★★ — pattern-based signals at fair odds; informational, not a sized bet.
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
28%
Home Win
22%
+6.3pp
24%
Draw
25%
-0.8pp
48%
Away Win
54%
-5.7pp
48%
Under 2.5
48%
+0.6pp
52%
Over 2.5
52%
-0.6pp
52%
BTTS Yes
53%
-1.5pp
48%
BTTS No
47%
+1.5pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Jablonec EU Bookmakers 25%
Head to Head
AWAY Sparta Prag EU Bookmakers 57%
-5% / -2% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -1% / +5%
0.61/1.23 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.96/0.91
-14% / -5% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +23% / -6%
45% Ball Possession 55%
9 Total Shots 16
4 Shots on Target 5
3 Corners 8
243 · 72% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 449 · 82%
12.5 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 31.6
17.9 Crosses 20.0
3.0 Yellow Cards 2.2
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Jablonec
0W-2D-4L
AWAY Sparta Prag
1.00 Avg Goals (FT) 2.83
0.62 xG 1.33
40% Ball Possession 60%
7 Total Shots 14
4 Shots on Target 6
2 Corners 6
289 Passes 313
77% Pass Accuracy 79%
22 Box Touches 27
14 Crosses 12
3 Yellow Cards 3
09.12.2023 Sparta Prag Sparta Prag 3-0 HT 3-0 Jablonec Jablonec ÇEK
12.08.2023 Jablonec Jablonec 1-5 HT 0-5 Sparta Prag Sparta Prag ÇEK
19.02.2023 Sparta Prag Sparta Prag 3-0 HT 1-0 Jablonec Jablonec ÇEK
30.08.2022 Jablonec Jablonec 1-1 HT 1-1 Sparta Prag Sparta Prag ÇEK
09.03.2022 Jablonec Jablonec 1-1 HT 0-0 Sparta Prag Sparta Prag ÇEK
02.03.2022 Sparta Prag Sparta Prag 4-3 HT 1-1 Jablonec Jablonec ÇEKK
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Jablonec
1-2
AWAY Sparta Prag
46% Ball Possession 54%
12 Total Shots 20
3 Shots on Target 7
6 Corners 6
257 Passes 327
72% Pass Accuracy 79%
17 Box Touches 30
19 Crosses 22
2 Yellow Cards 1
POST-MATCH Jablonec vs Sparta Prag
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Sparta Prag squeezed past Jablonec 2-1 away from home. Half-time: 0-1.

As our pre-match numbers suggested, our model had Sparta Prag as the likeliest winner at 48%, and the 2-1 landed on that lead.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 52% and both teams to score was close to even at 52%.

On the day, Jablonec had 46% of the ball to Sparta Prag's 54%, shots finished 12-20.

Coming into the game, across their last 6 meetings in our records, Sparta Prag led the recent series with 4 wins, 2 drawn. Those games averaged 1.00 goals for Jablonec and 2.83 for Sparta Prag.

What was the final score of Jablonec vs Sparta Prag?

Jablonec 1-2 Sparta Prag in the Czech Republic - Czech Liga on 17/08/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Jablonec vs Sparta Prag?

Before kick-off our model rated an Sparta Prag win the most likely single outcome at about 48%, with the full match-result split Jablonec 28%, draw 24%, Sparta Prag 48%. The final score 1-2 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Sparta Prag), Over 2.5, BTTS Yes — a clean sweep of the main markets.

✓ Match Result (Sparta Prag) ✓ Over 2.5 ✓ BTTS Yes
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