Buxton 2-1 Farsley AFC — Result, Statistics & Match Review — England - Conference, 17 Aug 2024

📅17/08/2024 · 🕒17:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-0 2nd Score 0-1
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
42%
2.09
Draw
25%
3.28
Away
33%
3.02
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
57%
1.78
Over 2.5
43%
1.95
Both Teams to Score
Yes
44%
1.81
No
56%
1.9
Total Goals
0-1 Goal EV+ ✗
32%
3.03
2-3 Goals
39%
1.78
4-5 Goals
20%
3.86
6+ Goals
9%
17.0
Value flag · 0-1 Goal at 3.03 — our 32% vs market 27.3%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
17%
1/2
6%
1/X
6%
X/1
17%
X/2
10%
X/X
13%
2/1
7%
2/2
18%
2/X
6%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
41%
Home Win
44%
-2.2pp
25%
Draw
27%
-1.4pp
33%
Away Win
29%
+3.6pp
57%
Under 2.5
52%
+5.1pp
42%
Over 2.5
48%
-5.1pp
44%
BTTS Yes
51%
-7.2pp
56%
BTTS No
49%
+7.2pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Buxton EU Bookmakers 48%
Head to Head
AWAY Farsley AFC EU Bookmakers 33%
-2% / -14% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -1% / +14%
1.32/1.28 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 0.87/1.37
-14% / -7% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -31% / +2%
52% Ball Possession 48%
12 Total Shots 10
5 Shots on Target 4
6 Corners 4
298 · 74% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 247 · 71%
Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area
Crosses
2.3 Yellow Cards 2.6
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Buxton
1W-0D-2L
AWAY Farsley AFC
1.33 Avg Goals (FT) 1.33
56% Ball Possession 44%
12 Total Shots 13
6 Shots on Target 4
6 Corners 8
2 Yellow Cards 2
11.11.2023 Buxton Buxton 1-2 HT 1-2 Farsley AFC Farsley AFC İCON
18.03.2023 Buxton Buxton 2-0 HT 1-0 Farsley AFC Farsley AFC İCON
24.01.2023 Farsley AFC Farsley AFC 2-1 HT 2-0 Buxton Buxton İCON
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Buxton
2-1
AWAY Farsley AFC
53% Ball Possession 47%
10 Total Shots 12
6 Shots on Target 2
4 Corners 4
3 Yellow Cards 2
POST-MATCH Buxton vs Farsley AFC
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Buxton squeezed past Farsley AFC 2-1. Half-time: 1-0.

As our pre-match numbers suggested, our model had Buxton as the likeliest winner at 41%, and the 2-1 landed on that lead. The goals read — under 2.5 goals (57%), no to both teams scoring (56%) — went the other way, though.

On the day, Buxton had 53% of the ball to Farsley AFC's 47%, shots finished 10-12.

Coming into the game, across their last 3 meetings in our records, Farsley AFC led the recent series with 2 wins. Those games averaged 1.33 goals for Buxton and 1.33 for Farsley AFC.

What was the final score of Buxton vs Farsley AFC?

Buxton 2-1 Farsley AFC in the England - Conference on 17/08/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Buxton vs Farsley AFC?

Before kick-off our model rated a Buxton win the most likely single outcome at about 41%, with the full match-result split Buxton 41%, draw 25%, Farsley AFC 33%. The final score 2-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Buxton) — while Under 2.5, BTTS No went the other way.

✓ Match Result (Buxton) ✗ Under 2.5 ✗ BTTS No
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