Newcastle United 1-0 Southampton — Result, Statistics & Match Review — England - Premier League, 17 Aug 2024

Newcastle United
1-0 HT 1-0
Southampton
📅17/08/2024 · 🕒17:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 2-2 ✗ 2nd Score 3-1 ✗
England - Premier League – 2024/2025

Newcastle United vs Southampton Prediction — Model Probabilities

MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
55%
1.43
Draw
24%
4.49
Away
21%
5.27
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
36%
2.59
Over 2.5
64%
1.45
Both Teams to Score
Yes
59%
1.63
No
41%
2.13
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
18%
5.75
2-3 Goals
34%
2.04
4-5 Goals
30%
2.61
6+ Goals
18%
6.05
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
31%
1.7
1/2
7%
34.5
1/X
7%
17.65
X/1
14%
3.82
X/2
9%
14.0
X/X
12%
7.55
2/1 EV+ ✗
10%
19.5
2/2
6%
9.65
2/X
4%
17.75
Value flag · 2/1 at 19.5 — our 10% vs market 2.6%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
💡 For the risk lovers: Home Win ★★ — pattern-based signals at fair odds; informational, not a sized bet.
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
55%
Home Win
65%
-10.0pp
24%
Draw
19%
+4.8pp
21%
Away Win
16%
+5.4pp
36%
Under 2.5
35%
+1.2pp
64%
Over 2.5
65%
-1.2pp
59%
BTTS Yes
57%
+2.0pp
41%
BTTS No
43%
-2.0pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.

Newcastle United v Southampton — Team-Based Signals

PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Newcastle United EU Bookmakers 70%
Head to Head
AWAY Southampton EU Bookmakers 19%
+3% / +2% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +1% / -1%
2.26/1.12 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.17/1.69
+8% / +12% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +15% / -10%
55% Ball Possession 45%
17 Total Shots 12
7 Shots on Target 4
6 Corners 4
408 · 81% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 313 · 78%
34.8 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 20.7
21.6 Crosses 15.6
1.9 Yellow Cards 1.9

Newcastle United vs Southampton Head-to-Head — Last 6 Meetings

H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Newcastle United
5W-1D-0L
AWAY Southampton
2.33 Avg Goals (FT) 1.00
1.84 xG 1.55
46% Ball Possession 54%
13 Total Shots 13
5 Shots on Target 4
5 Corners 5
281 Passes 361
73% Pass Accuracy 78%
30 Box Touches 23
18 Crosses 18
2 Yellow Cards 3
The Meetings
30.04.2023 Newcastle United Newcastle United 3-1 HT 0-1 Southampton Southampton İNP
31.01.2023 Newcastle United Newcastle United 2-1 HT 2-1 Southampton Southampton İNLK
24.01.2023 Southampton Southampton 0-1 HT 0-0 Newcastle United Newcastle United İNLK
06.11.2022 Southampton Southampton 1-4 HT 0-1 Newcastle United Newcastle United İNP
10.03.2022 Southampton Southampton 1-2 HT 1-1 Newcastle United Newcastle United İNP
28.08.2021 Newcastle United Newcastle United 2-2 HT 0-0 Southampton Southampton İNP

Newcastle United 1-0 Southampton — Actual Match Statistics

RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Newcastle United
1-0
AWAY Southampton
0.25 xG 1.77
22% Ball Possession 78%
3 Total Shots 19
1 Shots on Target 4
3 Corners 12
117 Passes 579
65% Pass Accuracy 89%
14 Box Touches 48
12 Crosses 30
2 Yellow Cards 4
POST-MATCH Newcastle United vs Southampton
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Newcastle United edged past Southampton 1-0.

Just as the model leaned, our model had Newcastle United as the likeliest winner at 55%, and the 1-0 landed on that lead. The goals read — over 2.5 goals (64%), both teams to score (59%) — went the other way, though.

On the day, Newcastle United had 22% of the ball to Southampton's 78%, shots finished 3-19, expected goals 0.25 to 1.77 — the balance of chances actually favoured Southampton.

Coming into the game, across their last 6 meetings in our records, Newcastle United had the better of it with 5 wins, 1 drawn. Those games averaged 2.33 goals for Newcastle United and 1.00 for Southampton.

What was the final score of Newcastle United vs Southampton?

Newcastle United 1-0 Southampton in the England - Premier League on 17/08/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Newcastle United vs Southampton?

Before kick-off our model rated a Newcastle United win the most likely single outcome at about 55%, with the full match-result split Newcastle United 55%, draw 24%, Southampton 21%. The final score 1-0 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Newcastle United) — while Over 2.5, BTTS Yes went the other way.

✓ Match Result (Newcastle United) ✗ Over 2.5 ✗ BTTS Yes
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