West Ham United 1-2 Aston Villa — Result, Statistics & Match Review — England - Premier League, 17 Aug 2024

📅17/08/2024 · 🕒19:30 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 2-2 2nd Score 2-1
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
43%
2.27
Draw
25%
3.35
Away
32%
2.69
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
42%
2.1
Over 2.5
58%
1.67
Both Teams to Score
Yes
56%
1.56
No
44%
2.27
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
21%
4.16
2-3 Goals
41%
1.86
4-5 Goals
25%
3.04
6+ Goals
13%
9.52
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
21%
3.28
1/2
7%
28.0
1/X
6%
12.2
X/1
14%
5.45
X/2
7%
6.23
X/X
12%
5.0
2/1 EV+ ✗
8%
25.5
2/2
18%
3.94
2/X
7%
12.3
Value flag · 2/1 at 25.5 — our 8% vs market 1.8%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
43%
Home Win
40%
+2.9pp
25%
Draw
26%
-1.2pp
32%
Away Win
34%
-1.8pp
42%
Under 2.5
44%
-1.6pp
58%
Over 2.5
56%
+1.6pp
56%
BTTS Yes
60%
-4.0pp
44%
BTTS No
40%
+4.0pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME West Ham United EU Bookmakers 44%
Head to Head
AWAY Aston Villa EU Bookmakers 37%
-3% / -10% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +3% / +11%
1.39/1.32 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.37/1.34
+0% / -1% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -11% / +28%
49% Ball Possession 51%
14 Total Shots 11
5 Shots on Target 5
5 Corners 4
376 · 79% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 386 · 80%
23.9 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 23.5
22.4 Crosses 17.0
1.7 Yellow Cards 2.3
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME West Ham United
3W-2D-1L
AWAY Aston Villa
1.67 Avg Goals (FT) 1.33
1.59 xG 1.08
44% Ball Possession 56%
14 Total Shots 12
5 Shots on Target 5
6 Corners 6
310 Passes 439
81% Pass Accuracy 84%
25 Box Touches 26
21 Crosses 20
1 Yellow Cards 1
17.03.2024 West Ham United West Ham United 1-1 HT 1-0 Aston Villa Aston Villa İNP
22.10.2023 Aston Villa Aston Villa 4-1 HT 1-0 West Ham United West Ham United İNP
12.03.2023 West Ham United West Ham United 1-1 HT 1-1 Aston Villa Aston Villa İNP
28.08.2022 Aston Villa Aston Villa 0-1 HT 0-0 West Ham United West Ham United İNP
13.03.2022 West Ham United West Ham United 2-1 HT 0-0 Aston Villa Aston Villa İNP
31.10.2021 Aston Villa Aston Villa 1-4 HT 1-2 West Ham United West Ham United İNP
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME West Ham United
1-2
AWAY Aston Villa
2.46 xG 2.03
52% Ball Possession 48%
14 Total Shots 15
3 Shots on Target 3
5 Corners 3
352 Passes 329
84% Pass Accuracy 84%
26 Box Touches 23
25 Crosses 15
1 Yellow Cards 2
POST-MATCH West Ham United vs Aston Villa
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Aston Villa edged past West Ham United 2-1 away from home. The game was level at 1-1 at the break, so the decisive goals came after it.

Our pre-match lean was West Ham United at 43%, but a lead that slim is closer to a coin-flip than a call — and it fell the other way. The goals side of the card held up too — over 2.5 goals (58%), both teams to score (56%) came in.

On the day, West Ham United had 52% of the ball to Aston Villa's 48%, shots finished 14-15, expected goals 2.46 to 2.03 — the balance of chances actually favoured West Ham United.

For context: across their last 6 meetings in our records, West Ham United had the better of it with 3 wins, 2 drawn. Those games averaged 1.67 goals for West Ham United and 1.33 for Aston Villa.

What was the final score of West Ham United vs Aston Villa?

West Ham United 1-2 Aston Villa in the England - Premier League on 17/08/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for West Ham United vs Aston Villa?

Before kick-off our model rated a West Ham United win the most likely single outcome at about 43%, with the full match-result split West Ham United 43%, draw 25%, Aston Villa 32%. The final score 1-2 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Over 2.5, BTTS Yes — while Match Result (West Ham United) went the other way.

✗ Match Result (West Ham United) ✓ Over 2.5 ✓ BTTS Yes
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