Independiente 1-0 Rosario Central — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Argentina - Premier League, 17 Aug 2024

📅17/08/2024 · 🕒21:30 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-0 2nd Score 2-0
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
56%
1.72
Draw
22%
2.94
Away
22%
5.79
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
55%
1.28
Over 2.5
45%
3.46
Both Teams to Score
Yes
36%
3.08
No
64%
1.32
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
35%
1.72
2-3 Goals
43%
1.97
4-5 Goals
15%
8.96
6+ Goals
7%
34.5
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
35%
2.3
1/2
6%
34.5
1/X
6%
20.85
X/1
15%
3.4
X/2
10%
11.6
X/X
10%
3.1
2/1
6%
34.5
2/2
6%
12.15
2/X
6%
22.7
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
56%
Home Win
54%
+1.5pp
22%
Draw
31%
-8.5pp
22%
Away Win
15%
+7.1pp
55%
Under 2.5
75%
-19.1pp
45%
Over 2.5
25%
+19.1pp
36%
BTTS Yes
28%
+8.0pp
64%
BTTS No
72%
-8.0pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Independiente EU Bookmakers 58%
Head to Head
AWAY Rosario Central EU Bookmakers 17%
-6% / -10% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -5% / -10%
1.34/0.89 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 0.88/1.53
-11% / +20% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -10% / -14%
53% Ball Possession 47%
13 Total Shots 9
5 Shots on Target 3
7 Corners 4
305 · 78% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 275 · 73%
25.2 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 12.7
22.1 Crosses 17.4
2.4 Yellow Cards 3.2
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Independiente
2W-2D-2L
AWAY Rosario Central
0.67 Avg Goals (FT) 1.00
1.55 xG 1.03
58% Ball Possession 42%
14 Total Shots 12
4 Shots on Target 3
8 Corners 4
348 Passes 226
77% Pass Accuracy 70%
27 Box Touches 16
26 Crosses 21
3 Yellow Cards 2
14.02.2024 Independiente Independiente 1-0 HT 1-0 Rosario Central Rosario Central ARJ
20.09.2023 Rosario Central Rosario Central 1-1 HT 0-1 Independiente Independiente ARJ
13.04.2023 Rosario Central Rosario Central 1-0 HT 1-0 Independiente Independiente ARJ
16.07.2022 Independiente Independiente 0-0 HT 0-0 Rosario Central Rosario Central ARJ
23.04.2022 Rosario Central Rosario Central 3-0 HT 1-0 Independiente Independiente ARJ
15.08.2021 Rosario Central Rosario Central 1-2 HT 0-2 Independiente Independiente ARJ
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Independiente
1-0
AWAY Rosario Central
0.92 xG 0.23
48% Ball Possession 52%
12 Total Shots 6
5 Shots on Target 2
4 Corners 1
233 Passes 273
65% Pass Accuracy 70%
24 Box Touches 6
18 Crosses 13
5 Yellow Cards 4
POST-MATCH Independiente vs Rosario Central
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Independiente squeezed past Rosario Central 1-0.

As we highlighted before kick-off, our model had Independiente as the likeliest winner at 56%, and the 1-0 landed on that lead. The goals side of the card held up too — under 2.5 goals (55%), no to both teams scoring (64%) came in.

On the day, Independiente had 48% of the ball to Rosario Central's 52%, shots finished 12-6, expected goals 0.92 to 0.23.

For context: across their last 6 meetings in our records, honours were even at 2 apiece, 2 drawn. Those games averaged 0.67 goals for Independiente and 1.00 for Rosario Central.

What was the final score of Independiente vs Rosario Central?

Independiente 1-0 Rosario Central in the Argentina - Premier League on 17/08/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Independiente vs Rosario Central?

Before kick-off our model rated a Independiente win the most likely single outcome at about 56%, with the full match-result split Independiente 56%, draw 22%, Rosario Central 22%. The final score 1-0 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Independiente), Under 2.5, BTTS No — a clean sweep of the main markets.

✓ Match Result (Independiente) ✓ Under 2.5 ✓ BTTS No
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