Gremio 0-2 Bahia — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Brazil - Serie A, 17 Aug 2024

Gremio
0-2 HT 0-1
Bahia
📅17/08/2024 · 🕒22:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-1 2nd Score 1-0
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
37%
2.53
Draw
29%
3.11
Away
34%
2.54
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
54%
1.71
Over 2.5
46%
2.03
Both Teams to Score
Yes
51%
1.81
No
49%
1.9
Total Goals
0-1 Goal EV+ ✗
30%
2.84
2-3 Goals
44%
1.77
4-5 Goals
18%
4.11
6+ Goals
8%
19.55
Value flag · 0-1 Goal at 2.84 — our 30% vs market 29.3%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
13%
3.89
1/2
6%
31.5
1/X
6%
13.05
X/1
18%
5.52
X/2
15%
5.48
X/X
15%
4.09
2/1
6%
31.5
2/2
14%
3.85
2/X
7%
13.05
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
37%
Home Win
36%
+1.3pp
29%
Draw
29%
-0.1pp
34%
Away Win
36%
-1.3pp
54%
Under 2.5
55%
-0.6pp
46%
Over 2.5
45%
+0.6pp
51%
BTTS Yes
51%
-0.1pp
49%
BTTS No
49%
+0.1pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Gremio EU Bookmakers 40%
Head to Head
AWAY Bahia EU Bookmakers 39%
+7% / +7% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +8% / +8%
1.06/0.83 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.55/1.47
-2% / +38% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +75% / -27%
48% Ball Possession 52%
13 Total Shots 14
4 Shots on Target 5
5 Corners 5
297 · 78% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 329 · 78%
19.1 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 16.4
14.4 Crosses 16.8
2.4 Yellow Cards 2.6
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Gremio
2W-3D-1L
AWAY Bahia
1.00 Avg Goals (FT) 0.83
1.73 xG 1.05
49% Ball Possession 51%
12 Total Shots 14
5 Shots on Target 4
4 Corners 5
326 Passes 351
77% Pass Accuracy 77%
22 Box Touches 16
18 Crosses 16
2 Yellow Cards 4
28.04.2024 Bahia Bahia 1-0 HT 1-0 Gremio Gremio BR1
05.11.2023 Gremio Gremio 1-0 HT 0-0 Bahia Bahia BR1
13.07.2023 Gremio Gremio 1-1 HT 0-1 Bahia Bahia BRK
05.07.2023 Bahia Bahia 1-1 HT 0-0 Gremio Gremio BRK
02.07.2023 Bahia Bahia 1-2 HT 1-1 Gremio Gremio BR1
16.10.2022 Gremio Gremio 1-1 HT 0-1 Bahia Bahia BR2
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Gremio
0-2
AWAY Bahia
1.23 xG 1.73
40% Ball Possession 60%
13 Total Shots 12
5 Shots on Target 5
1 Corners 5
342 Passes 563
84% Pass Accuracy 91%
21 Box Touches 24
14 Crosses 16
3 Yellow Cards 1
POST-MATCH Gremio vs Bahia
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Bahia beat Gremio 2-0 away from home. Half-time: 0-1.

We called this one close before kick-off — 37% / 29% / 34% — and on the day Bahia made the difference.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 46% and both teams to score was close to even at 51%.

On the day, Gremio had 40% of the ball to Bahia's 60%, shots finished 13-12, expected goals 1.23 to 1.73.

For context: across their last 6 meetings in our records, Gremio had the better of it with 2 wins, 3 drawn. Those games averaged 1.00 goals for Gremio and 0.83 for Bahia.

What was the final score of Gremio vs Bahia?

Gremio 0-2 Bahia in the Brazil - Serie A on 17/08/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Gremio vs Bahia?

Before kick-off our model rated a Gremio win the most likely single outcome at about 37%, with the full match-result split Gremio 37%, draw 29%, Bahia 34%. The final score 0-2 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Under 2.5 — while Match Result (Gremio), BTTS Yes went the other way.

✗ Match Result (Gremio) ✓ Under 2.5 ✗ BTTS Yes
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