Bahia 1-0 Gremio — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Brazil - Serie A, 28 Apr 2024

Bahia
1-0 HT 1-0
Gremio
📅28/04/2024 · 🕒03:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-1 ✗ 2nd Score 1-0 ✓
Brazil - Serie A – 2024

Bahia vs Gremio Prediction — Model Probabilities

MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
47%
1.76
Draw
27%
3.45
Away
26%
4.04
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
49%
1.86
Over 2.5
51%
1.86
Both Teams to Score
Yes
50%
1.81
No
50%
1.9
Total Goals
0-1 Goal EV+ ✓
26%
3.3
2-3 Goals
40%
1.78
4-5 Goals
22%
3.58
6+ Goals
12%
14.3
Value flag · 0-1 Goal at 3.3 — our 26% vs market 24.8%. Landed.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
25%
2.35
1/2
6%
34.5
1/X
5%
14.0
X/1
15%
4.12
X/2
9%
8.75
X/X
14%
4.79
2/1
8%
24.45
2/2
11%
6.77
2/X
7%
14.75
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
47%
Home Win
53%
-5.5pp
27%
Draw
26%
+1.0pp
26%
Away Win
22%
+4.6pp
49%
Under 2.5
50%
-1.1pp
51%
Over 2.5
50%
+1.1pp
50%
BTTS Yes
51%
-1.7pp
50%
BTTS No
49%
+1.7pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.

Bahia v Gremio — Team-Based Signals

PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Bahia EU Bookmakers 57%
Head to Head
AWAY Gremio EU Bookmakers 25%
-7% / -11% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -3% / -15%
1.67/1.05 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.23/1.62
+0% / -18% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +27% / -20%
51% Ball Possession 49%
15 Total Shots 11
6 Shots on Target 4
6 Corners 4
336 · 80% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 358 · 80%
25.1 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 18.5
23.4 Crosses 14.2
1.9 Yellow Cards 2.1

Bahia vs Gremio Head-to-Head — Last 6 Meetings

H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Bahia
0W-4D-2L
AWAY Gremio
0.67 Avg Goals (FT) 1.00
1.03 xG 1.47
50% Ball Possession 50%
15 Total Shots 12
4 Shots on Target 5
5 Corners 6
312 Passes 303
76% Pass Accuracy 75%
16 Box Touches 20
18 Crosses 18
4 Yellow Cards 2
The Meetings
05.11.2023 Gremio Gremio 1-0 HT 0-0 Bahia Bahia BR1
13.07.2023 Gremio Gremio 1-1 HT 0-1 Bahia Bahia BRK
05.07.2023 Bahia Bahia 1-1 HT 0-0 Gremio Gremio BRK
02.07.2023 Bahia Bahia 1-2 HT 1-1 Gremio Gremio BR1
16.10.2022 Gremio Gremio 1-1 HT 0-1 Bahia Bahia BR2
03.07.2022 Bahia Bahia 0-0 HT 0-0 Gremio Gremio BR2

Bahia 1-0 Gremio — Actual Match Statistics

RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Bahia
1-0
AWAY Gremio
60% Ball Possession 40%
14 Total Shots 3
4 Shots on Target 2
4 Corners 0
542 Passes 352
87% Pass Accuracy 85%
POST-MATCH Bahia vs Gremio
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Bahia edged past Gremio 1-0.

As our pre-match numbers suggested, our model had Bahia as the likeliest winner at 47%, and the 1-0 landed on that lead.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 51% and both teams to score was close to even at 50%.

On the day, Bahia had 60% of the ball to Gremio's 40%, shots finished 14-3.

For context: across their last 6 meetings in our records, Gremio led the recent series with 2 wins, 4 drawn. Those games averaged 0.67 goals for Bahia and 1.00 for Gremio.

What was the final score of Bahia vs Gremio?

Bahia 1-0 Gremio in the Brazil - Serie A on 28/04/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Bahia vs Gremio?

Before kick-off our model rated a Bahia win the most likely single outcome at about 47%, with the full match-result split Bahia 47%, draw 27%, Gremio 26%. The final score 1-0 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Bahia) — while Over 2.5 went the other way.

✓ Match Result (Bahia) ✗ Over 2.5
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