Corinthians 3-0 Fluminense — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Brazil - Serie A, 28 Apr 2024

📅28/04/2024 · 🕒22:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-0 2nd Score 0-0
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
44%
2.09
Draw
28%
3.11
Away
28%
3.25
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
57%
1.6
Over 2.5
43%
2.21
Both Teams to Score
Yes
45%
1.95
No
55%
1.76
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
32%
2.56
2-3 Goals
42%
1.77
4-5 Goals
18%
4.61
6+ Goals
8%
25.5
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
24%
3.08
1/2
9%
34.5
1/X
7%
13.7
X/1
14%
4.54
X/2
7%
6.67
X/X
11%
3.91
2/1
6%
30.0
2/2
12%
5.31
2/X
10%
14.15
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
44%
Home Win
44%
+0.5pp
28%
Draw
29%
-0.7pp
28%
Away Win
27%
+0.2pp
57%
Under 2.5
59%
-1.1pp
43%
Over 2.5
41%
+1.1pp
45%
BTTS Yes
47%
-2.0pp
55%
BTTS No
53%
+2.0pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Corinthians EU Bookmakers 48%
Head to Head
AWAY Fluminense EU Bookmakers 31%
+5% / -1% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +0% / +2%
1.31/1.18 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 0.97/1.56
-1% / -14% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +6% / -3%
50% Ball Possession 50%
14 Total Shots 12
5 Shots on Target 3
4 Corners 5
326 · 80% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 325 · 79%
21.2 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 16.9
21.3 Crosses 16.6
2.4 Yellow Cards 2.6
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Corinthians
2W-2D-2L
AWAY Fluminense
1.67 Avg Goals (FT) 1.83
1.04 xG 1.50
36% Ball Possession 64%
10 Total Shots 17
4 Shots on Target 6
5 Corners 8
266 Passes 536
79% Pass Accuracy 89%
12 Box Touches 26
14 Crosses 28
2 Yellow Cards 2
20.10.2023 Fluminense Fluminense 3-3 HT 1-3 Corinthians Corinthians BR1
28.05.2023 Corinthians Corinthians 2-0 HT 0-0 Fluminense Fluminense BR1
27.10.2022 Corinthians Corinthians 0-2 HT 0-1 Fluminense Fluminense BR1
16.09.2022 Corinthians Corinthians 3-0 HT 1-0 Fluminense Fluminense BRK
25.08.2022 Fluminense Fluminense 2-2 HT 1-1 Corinthians Corinthians BRK
02.07.2022 Fluminense Fluminense 4-0 HT 2-0 Corinthians Corinthians BR1
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Corinthians
3-0
AWAY Fluminense
31% Ball Possession 69%
17 Total Shots 13
7 Shots on Target 2
6 Corners 8
212 Passes 559
79% Pass Accuracy 89%
POST-MATCH Corinthians vs Fluminense
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Corinthians swept aside Fluminense 3-0. Half-time: 2-0.

As we said in the preview, our model had Corinthians as the likeliest winner at 44%, and the 3-0 landed on that lead. On goals, no to both teams scoring (55%) landed while under 2.5 goals (57%) missed.

On the day, Corinthians had 31% of the ball to Fluminense's 69%, shots finished 17-13.

For context: across their last 6 meetings in our records, honours were even at 2 apiece, 2 drawn. Those games averaged 1.67 goals for Corinthians and 1.83 for Fluminense.

What was the final score of Corinthians vs Fluminense?

Corinthians 3-0 Fluminense in the Brazil - Serie A on 28/04/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Corinthians vs Fluminense?

Before kick-off our model rated a Corinthians win the most likely single outcome at about 44%, with the full match-result split Corinthians 44%, draw 28%, Fluminense 28%. The final score 3-0 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Corinthians), BTTS No — while Under 2.5 went the other way.

✓ Match Result (Corinthians) ✗ Under 2.5 ✓ BTTS No
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