Flamengo 0-2 Botafogo — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Brazil - Serie A, 28 Apr 2024

📅28/04/2024 · 🕒17:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-0 2nd Score 2-0
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
50%
1.61
Draw
26%
3.72
Away
24%
4.75
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
54%
1.8
Over 2.5
46%
1.91
Both Teams to Score
Yes
46%
1.96
No
54%
1.75
Total Goals
0-1 Goal EV+ ✗
30%
3.09
2-3 Goals
39%
1.78
4-5 Goals
21%
3.79
6+ Goals
10%
16.4
Value flag · 0-1 Goal at 3.09 — our 30% vs market 26.7%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
18%
2.08
1/2
6%
34.5
1/X
5%
16.75
X/1
25%
3.64
X/2
9%
10.15
X/X
11%
5.13
2/1
7%
24.45
2/2
9%
8.47
2/X
10%
17.6
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
50%
Home Win
58%
-8.4pp
26%
Draw
24%
+1.8pp
25%
Away Win
18%
+6.4pp
54%
Under 2.5
52%
+2.2pp
46%
Over 2.5
48%
-2.2pp
46%
BTTS Yes
47%
-0.4pp
54%
BTTS No
53%
+0.4pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Flamengo EU Bookmakers 62%
Head to Head
AWAY Botafogo EU Bookmakers 21%
-8% / -14% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +0% / +3%
1.86/1.00 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 0.93/1.50
-1% / -14% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +3% / -2%
60% Ball Possession 40%
15 Total Shots 9
6 Shots on Target 3
7 Corners 4
414 · 84% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 249 · 74%
29.6 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 15.1
21.3 Crosses 15.6
2.0 Yellow Cards 2.1
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Flamengo
4W-0D-2L
AWAY Botafogo
1.17 Avg Goals (FT) 0.83
1.71 xG 1.22
55% Ball Possession 46%
13 Total Shots 11
6 Shots on Target 5
6 Corners 5
425 Passes 281
84% Pass Accuracy 78%
24 Box Touches 19
22 Crosses 17
3 Yellow Cards 4
08.02.2024 Flamengo Flamengo 1-0 HT 0-0 Botafogo Botafogo BRC1
03.09.2023 Botafogo Botafogo 1-2 HT 1-1 Flamengo Flamengo BR1
30.04.2023 Flamengo Flamengo 2-3 HT 0-2 Botafogo Botafogo BR1
26.02.2023 Botafogo Botafogo 0-1 HT 0-1 Flamengo Flamengo BRC1
29.08.2022 Botafogo Botafogo 0-1 HT 0-0 Flamengo Flamengo BR1
08.05.2022 Flamengo Flamengo 0-1 HT 0-0 Botafogo Botafogo BR1
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Flamengo
0-2
AWAY Botafogo
60% Ball Possession 40%
15 Total Shots 9
0 Shots on Target 3
8 Corners 3
443 Passes 290
87% Pass Accuracy 81%
POST-MATCH Flamengo vs Botafogo
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Botafogo got the better of Flamengo 2-0 away from home. The game was level at 0-0 at the break, so the decisive goals came after it.

Our pre-match lean was Flamengo at 50%, but a lead that slim is closer to a coin-flip than a call — and it fell the other way.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 46% and both teams to score was close to even at 46%.

On the day, Flamengo had 60% of the ball to Botafogo's 40%, shots finished 15-9.

Coming into the game, across their last 6 meetings in our records, Flamengo had the better of it with 4 wins. Those games averaged 1.17 goals for Flamengo and 0.83 for Botafogo.

What was the final score of Flamengo vs Botafogo?

Flamengo 0-2 Botafogo in the Brazil - Serie A on 28/04/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Flamengo vs Botafogo?

Before kick-off our model rated a Flamengo win the most likely single outcome at about 50%, with the full match-result split Flamengo 50%, draw 26%, Botafogo 25%. The final score 0-2 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Under 2.5, BTTS No — while Match Result (Flamengo) went the other way.

✗ Match Result (Flamengo) ✓ Under 2.5 ✓ BTTS No
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