Cruzeiro 3-1 Vitoria — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Brazil - Serie A, 28 Apr 2024

📅28/04/2024 · 🕒22:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-0 2nd Score 0-0
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
48%
1.57
Draw
29%
3.72
Away
23%
5.11
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
55%
1.71
Over 2.5
45%
2.03
Both Teams to Score
Yes
45%
2.09
No
55%
1.66
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
31%
2.77
2-3 Goals
39%
1.77
4-5 Goals
21%
4.22
6+ Goals
9%
20.75
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
26%
2.06
1/2
5%
34.5
1/X
5%
17.65
X/1
14%
3.51
X/2
8%
10.65
X/X
15%
4.84
2/1
8%
26.0
2/2
10%
9.35
2/X
9%
18.6
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
48%
Home Win
60%
-11.4pp
28%
Draw
24%
+4.6pp
23%
Away Win
17%
+6.8pp
55%
Under 2.5
55%
+0.5pp
45%
Over 2.5
45%
-0.5pp
45%
BTTS Yes
44%
+1.1pp
55%
BTTS No
56%
-1.1pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Cruzeiro EU Bookmakers 64%
Head to Head
AWAY Vitoria EU Bookmakers 20%
-12% / -31% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +4% / -5%
1.30/0.90 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 0.95/1.84
-38% / +7% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +13% / -16%
54% Ball Possession 46%
15 Total Shots 11
5 Shots on Target 3
7 Corners 4
387 · 83% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 320 · 79%
24.0 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 15.9
26.2 Crosses 15.6
2.6 Yellow Cards 2.9
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Cruzeiro
3W-2D-1L
AWAY Vitoria
1.33 Avg Goals (FT) 1.00
1.40 xG 1.34
54% Ball Possession 46%
14 Total Shots 13
5 Shots on Target 3
6 Corners 4
394 Passes 335
84% Pass Accuracy 84%
17 Box Touches 14
18 Crosses 14
3 Yellow Cards 2
15.11.2021 Vitoria Vitoria 3-0 HT 3-0 Cruzeiro Cruzeiro BR2
12.08.2021 Cruzeiro Cruzeiro 2-2 HT 0-1 Vitoria Vitoria BR2
12.12.2020 Vitoria Vitoria 0-1 HT 0-1 Cruzeiro Cruzeiro BR2
12.09.2020 Cruzeiro Cruzeiro 1-0 HT 0-0 Vitoria Vitoria BR2
22.11.2018 Cruzeiro Cruzeiro 3-0 HT 1-0 Vitoria Vitoria BR1
05.08.2018 Vitoria Vitoria 1-1 HT 0-0 Cruzeiro Cruzeiro BR1
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Cruzeiro
3-1
AWAY Vitoria
54% Ball Possession 46%
15 Total Shots 8
6 Shots on Target 3
10 Corners 4
399 Passes 340
85% Pass Accuracy 84%
POST-MATCH Cruzeiro vs Vitoria
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Cruzeiro got the better of Vitoria 3-1. The game was level at 0-0 at the break, so the decisive goals came after it.

Just as the model leaned, our model had Cruzeiro as the likeliest winner at 48%, and the 3-1 landed on that lead. The goals read — under 2.5 goals (55%), no to both teams scoring (55%) — went the other way, though.

On the day, Cruzeiro had 54% of the ball to Vitoria's 46%, shots finished 15-8.

Coming into the game, across their last 6 meetings in our records, Cruzeiro had the better of it with 3 wins, 2 drawn. Those games averaged 1.33 goals for Cruzeiro and 1.00 for Vitoria.

What was the final score of Cruzeiro vs Vitoria?

Cruzeiro 3-1 Vitoria in the Brazil - Serie A on 28/04/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Cruzeiro vs Vitoria?

Before kick-off our model rated a Cruzeiro win the most likely single outcome at about 48%, with the full match-result split Cruzeiro 48%, draw 28%, Vitoria 23%. The final score 3-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Cruzeiro) — while Under 2.5, BTTS No went the other way.

✓ Match Result (Cruzeiro) ✗ Under 2.5 ✗ BTTS No
Want to know how this prediction was produced? Read how we price a match →
Want to test this kind of bet across 26 seasons yourself? Open Match Studio →
BR1 More Brazil - Serie A
28 Apr 2024
00:30 Cuiaba vs Atletico Mineiro Analysis →
03:00 Bahia vs Gremio Analysis →
17:00 Flamengo vs Botafogo Analysis →
22:00 Corinthians vs Fluminense Analysis →