Cumbaya 1-3 Independiente Del Valle — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Ecuador - Premier, 17 Aug 2024

Cumbaya
1-3 HT 1-1
Independiente Del Valle
📅17/08/2024 · 🕒22:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 0-3 ✗ 2nd Score 0-4 ✗
Ecuador - Premier – 2024

Cumbaya vs Independiente Del Valle Prediction — Model Probabilities

MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
20%
7.78
Draw
19%
4.62
Away
61%
1.33
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
41%
1.91
Over 2.5
59%
1.8
Both Teams to Score
Yes
43%
2.33
No
57%
1.53
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
24%
2-3 Goals
40%
4-5 Goals
25%
6+ Goals
11%
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
8%
1/2
8%
1/X
7%
X/1
6%
X/2
23%
X/X
6%
2/1
6%
2/2
30%
2/X
6%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
20%
Home Win
10%
+9.3pp
19%
Draw
19%
+0.6pp
61%
Away Win
71%
-9.9pp
41%
Under 2.5
48%
-7.1pp
59%
Over 2.5
52%
+7.1pp
43%
BTTS Yes
39%
+4.0pp
57%
BTTS No
61%
-4.0pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.

Cumbaya v Independiente Del Valle — Team-Based Signals

PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Cumbaya EU Bookmakers 13%
Head to Head
AWAY Independiente Del Valle EU Bookmakers 75%
+18% / +18% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +12% / +9%
0.64/1.29 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.31/0.58
-17% / +106% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -14% / +140%
41% Ball Possession 59%
9 Total Shots 19
4 Shots on Target 8
2 Corners 7
239 · 74% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 459 · 85%
12.0 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 25.3
13.1 Crosses 22.4
3.2 Yellow Cards 2.9

Cumbaya vs Independiente Del Valle Head-to-Head — Last 5 Meetings

H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Cumbaya
1W-0D-4L
AWAY Independiente Del Valle
0.20 Avg Goals (FT) 1.60
0.32 xG 1.48
36% Ball Possession 64%
5 Total Shots 18
2 Shots on Target 5
2 Corners 7
242 Passes 470
75% Pass Accuracy 86%
7 Box Touches 32
8 Crosses 20
3 Yellow Cards 2
The Meetings
16.03.2024 Independiente Del Valle Independiente Del Valle 3-0 HT 0-0 Cumbaya Cumbaya EKV1
13.08.2023 Independiente Del Valle Independiente Del Valle 2-0 HT 1-0 Cumbaya Cumbaya EKV1
07.03.2023 Cumbaya Cumbaya 1-0 HT 1-0 Independiente Del Valle Independiente Del Valle EKV1
10.07.2022 Independiente Del Valle Independiente Del Valle 2-0 HT 1-0 Cumbaya Cumbaya EKV1
21.02.2022 Cumbaya Cumbaya 0-1 HT 0-0 Independiente Del Valle Independiente Del Valle EKV1

Cumbaya 1-3 Independiente Del Valle — Actual Match Statistics

RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Cumbaya
1-3
AWAY Independiente Del Valle
0.45 xG 2.49
26% Ball Possession 74%
3 Total Shots 20
1 Shots on Target 10
0 Corners 11
137 Passes 458
69% Pass Accuracy 87%
6 Box Touches 28
0 Crosses 22
2 Yellow Cards 2
POST-MATCH Cumbaya vs Independiente Del Valle
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Independiente Del Valle beat Cumbaya 3-1 away from home. The game was level at 1-1 at the break, so the decisive goals came after it.

As we said in the preview, our model had Independiente Del Valle as the likeliest winner at 61%, and the 3-1 landed on that lead. On goals, over 2.5 goals (59%) landed while no to both teams scoring (57%) missed.

On the day, Cumbaya had 26% of the ball to Independiente Del Valle's 74%, shots finished 3-20, expected goals 0.45 to 2.49.

For context: across their last 5 meetings in our records, Independiente Del Valle led the recent series with 4 wins. Those games averaged 0.20 goals for Cumbaya and 1.60 for Independiente Del Valle.

What was the final score of Cumbaya vs Independiente Del Valle?

Cumbaya 1-3 Independiente Del Valle in the Ecuador - Premier on 17/08/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Cumbaya vs Independiente Del Valle?

Before kick-off our model rated an Independiente Del Valle win the most likely single outcome at about 61%, with the full match-result split Cumbaya 20%, draw 19%, Independiente Del Valle 61%. The final score 1-3 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Independiente Del Valle), Over 2.5 — while BTTS No went the other way.

✓ Match Result (Independiente Del Valle) ✓ Over 2.5 ✗ BTTS No
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