Libertad 0-1 Macara — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Ecuador - Premier, 17 Aug 2024

📅17/08/2024 · 🕒03:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-1 2nd Score 1-0
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
38%
2.47
Draw
27%
3.04
Away
35%
2.62
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
52%
1.56
Over 2.5
48%
2.29
Both Teams to Score
Yes
51%
1.96
No
49%
1.75
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
27%
2-3 Goals
42%
4-5 Goals
22%
6+ Goals
9%
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
22%
1/2
8%
1/X
8%
X/1
9%
X/2
11%
X/X
11%
2/1
7%
2/2
15%
2/X
9%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
38%
Home Win
36%
+1.2pp
27%
Draw
29%
-1.7pp
35%
Away Win
34%
+0.5pp
52%
Under 2.5
60%
-7.9pp
48%
Over 2.5
40%
+7.9pp
51%
BTTS Yes
47%
+4.4pp
49%
BTTS No
53%
-4.4pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Libertad EU Bookmakers 40%
Head to Head
AWAY Macara EU Bookmakers 38%
+0% / +0% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -12% / -15%
0.73/0.85 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.21/1.01
-68% / +88% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -38% / +15%
48% Ball Possession 52%
12 Total Shots 13
5 Shots on Target 4
5 Corners 5
265 · 74% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 298 · 77%
15.5 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 18.2
19.7 Crosses 17.2
1.8 Yellow Cards 3.3
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Libertad
0W-0D-1L
AWAY Macara
0.00 Avg Goals (FT) 3.00
0.39 xG 0.96
53% Ball Possession 47%
7 Total Shots 16
2 Shots on Target 5
2 Corners 1
241 Passes 212
78% Pass Accuracy 77%
9 Box Touches 14
13 Crosses 10
3 Yellow Cards 3
16.03.2024 Macara Macara 3-0 HT 2-0 Libertad Libertad EKV1
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Libertad
0-1
AWAY Macara
0.57 xG 1.24
52% Ball Possession 48%
14 Total Shots 12
5 Shots on Target 4
7 Corners 3
225 Passes 219
69% Pass Accuracy 71%
25 Box Touches 26
18 Crosses 7
2 Yellow Cards 2
POST-MATCH Libertad vs Macara
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Macara edged past Libertad 1-0 away from home. The game was level at 0-0 at the break, so the decisive goals came after it.

Our pre-match split (38% / 27% / 35%) promised a tight game; Macara found the edge the numbers couldn't.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 48% and both teams to score was close to even at 51%.

On the day, Libertad had 52% of the ball to Macara's 48%, shots finished 14-12, expected goals 0.57 to 1.24.

What was the final score of Libertad vs Macara?

Libertad 0-1 Macara in the Ecuador - Premier on 17/08/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Libertad vs Macara?

Before kick-off our model rated a Libertad win the most likely single outcome at about 38%, with the full match-result split Libertad 38%, draw 27%, Macara 35%. The final score 0-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Under 2.5 — while Match Result (Libertad), BTTS Yes went the other way.

✗ Match Result (Libertad) ✓ Under 2.5 ✗ BTTS Yes
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