Slaven Belupo 2-2 Lokomotiva Zagreb — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Croatia - 1. HNL, 17 Aug 2024

📅17/08/2024 · 🕒22:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-1 2nd Score 1-0
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
32%
2.47
Draw
27%
3.35
Away
41%
2.47
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
50%
1.95
Over 2.5
50%
1.78
Both Teams to Score
Yes
49%
1.66
No
51%
2.09
Total Goals
0-1 Goal EV+ ✗
29%
3.53
2-3 Goals
39%
1.8
4-5 Goals
22%
3.39
6+ Goals
10%
12.55
Value flag · 0-1 Goal at 3.53 — our 29% vs market 23.0%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
13%
1/2
9%
1/X
9%
X/1
10%
X/2
17%
X/X
13%
2/1
8%
2/2
15%
2/X
6%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
32%
Home Win
37%
-5.1pp
28%
Draw
26%
+1.2pp
41%
Away Win
37%
+3.9pp
50%
Under 2.5
48%
+2.4pp
50%
Over 2.5
52%
-2.4pp
49%
BTTS Yes
56%
-7.2pp
51%
BTTS No
44%
+7.2pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Slaven Belupo EU Bookmakers 40%
Head to Head
AWAY Lokomotiva Zagreb EU Bookmakers 40%
-1% / +3% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +8% / +17%
1.20/1.00 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.21/1.03
+15% / +11% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +10% / +27%
49% Ball Possession 51%
11 Total Shots 13
4 Shots on Target 5
4 Corners 5
317 · 77% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 308 · 77%
17.4 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 19.3
17.6 Crosses 19.1
2.7 Yellow Cards 2.4
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Slaven Belupo
1W-2D-3L
AWAY Lokomotiva Zagreb
1.00 Avg Goals (FT) 1.17
0.88 xG 1.43
42% Ball Possession 58%
10 Total Shots 12
2 Shots on Target 4
5 Corners 6
242 Passes 345
68% Pass Accuracy 75%
17 Box Touches 20
15 Crosses 21
3 Yellow Cards 2
12.05.2024 Lokomotiva Zagreb Lokomotiva Zagreb 2-1 HT 0-1 Slaven Belupo Slaven Belupo HIR
02.03.2024 Slaven Belupo Slaven Belupo 2-3 HT 0-2 Lokomotiva Zagreb Lokomotiva Zagreb HIR
16.01.2024 Slaven Belupo Slaven Belupo 0-0 HT 0-0 Lokomotiva Zagreb Lokomotiva Zagreb ARK
24.11.2023 Lokomotiva Zagreb Lokomotiva Zagreb 1-3 HT 1-2 Slaven Belupo Slaven Belupo HIR
01.09.2023 Slaven Belupo Slaven Belupo 0-1 HT 0-0 Lokomotiva Zagreb Lokomotiva Zagreb HIR
12.05.2023 Slaven Belupo Slaven Belupo 0-0 HT 0-0 Lokomotiva Zagreb Lokomotiva Zagreb HIR
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Slaven Belupo
2-2
AWAY Lokomotiva Zagreb
0.99 xG 2.41
48% Ball Possession 52%
13 Total Shots 17
4 Shots on Target 7
5 Corners 12
209 Passes 223
70% Pass Accuracy 74%
16 Box Touches 31
21 Crosses 26
6 Yellow Cards 3
POST-MATCH Slaven Belupo vs Lokomotiva Zagreb
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Slaven Belupo and Lokomotiva Zagreb shared the points in a 2-2 draw. Half-time: 1-2.

Our pre-match lean was Lokomotiva Zagreb at 41%, but a lead that slim is closer to a coin-flip than a call — and it fell the other way.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 50% and both teams to score was close to even at 49%.

On the day, Slaven Belupo had 48% of the ball to Lokomotiva Zagreb's 52%, shots finished 13-17, expected goals 0.99 to 2.41.

Coming into the game, across their last 6 meetings in our records, Lokomotiva Zagreb led the recent series with 3 wins, 2 drawn. Those games averaged 1.00 goals for Slaven Belupo and 1.17 for Lokomotiva Zagreb.

What was the final score of Slaven Belupo vs Lokomotiva Zagreb?

Slaven Belupo 2-2 Lokomotiva Zagreb in the Croatia - 1. HNL on 17/08/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Slaven Belupo vs Lokomotiva Zagreb?

Before kick-off our model rated an Lokomotiva Zagreb win the most likely single outcome at about 41%, with the full match-result split Slaven Belupo 32%, draw 28%, Lokomotiva Zagreb 41%. The final score 2-2 went against our main leads this time — single matches are noisy by nature; our accuracy is measured across thousands of predictions, not one result.

✗ Match Result (Lokomotiva Zagreb) ✗ BTTS No
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