Stromsgodset 3-2 Lilleström — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Norway - Eliteserien, 17 Aug 2024

Stromsgodset
3-2 HT 1-2
Lilleström
📅17/08/2024 · 🕒19:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 2-2 ✗ 2nd Score 2-1 ✗
Norway - Eliteserien – 2024

Stromsgodset vs Lilleström Prediction — Model Probabilities

MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
41%
2.19
Draw
26%
3.45
Away
33%
2.69
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
46%
2.38
Over 2.5
54%
1.52
Both Teams to Score
Yes
58%
1.46
No
42%
2.53
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
22%
5.21
2-3 Goals
40%
1.97
4-5 Goals
26%
2.71
6+ Goals
12%
6.87
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
23%
3.09
1/2
7%
26.0
1/X
8%
12.2
X/1
10%
5.52
X/2
11%
6.49
X/X
9%
5.59
2/1 EV+ ✓
8%
23.15
2/2
15%
3.87
2/X
9%
12.25
Value flag · 2/1 at 23.15 — our 8% vs market 2.1%. Landed.
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
40%
Home Win
42%
-1.0pp
26%
Draw
25%
+0.7pp
34%
Away Win
33%
+0.3pp
46%
Under 2.5
38%
+7.8pp
54%
Over 2.5
62%
-7.8pp
58%
BTTS Yes
64%
-6.6pp
42%
BTTS No
36%
+6.6pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.

Stromsgodset v Lilleström — Team-Based Signals

PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Stromsgodset EU Bookmakers 46%
Head to Head
AWAY Lilleström EU Bookmakers 37%
-3% / -19% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +5% / +22%
1.53/1.42 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.48/1.12
-19% / +14% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +15% / -4%
47% Ball Possession 53%
16 Total Shots 13
5 Shots on Target 5
6 Corners 6
305 · 78% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 381 · 80%
26.7 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 25.1
21.8 Crosses 22.4
1.6 Yellow Cards 1.5

Stromsgodset vs Lilleström Head-to-Head — Last 6 Meetings

H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Stromsgodset
1W-0D-5L
AWAY Lilleström
2.00 Avg Goals (FT) 2.50
1.13 xG 2.15
45% Ball Possession 55%
13 Total Shots 18
5 Shots on Target 8
6 Corners 10
283 Passes 353
76% Pass Accuracy 82%
23 Box Touches 29
17 Crosses 31
2 Yellow Cards 2
The Meetings
13.07.2024 Lilleström Lilleström 3-1 HT 2-1 Stromsgodset Stromsgodset NOR
09.05.2024 Stromsgodset Stromsgodset 3-4 HT 2-3 Lilleström Lilleström NOK
20.08.2023 Stromsgodset Stromsgodset 1-2 HT 0-1 Lilleström Lilleström NOR
19.04.2023 Lilleström Lilleström 4-3 HT 2-2 Stromsgodset Stromsgodset NOR
10.09.2022 Lilleström Lilleström 2-1 HT 2-0 Stromsgodset Stromsgodset NOR
26.06.2022 Stromsgodset Stromsgodset 3-0 HT 0-0 Lilleström Lilleström NOR

Stromsgodset 3-2 Lilleström — Actual Match Statistics

RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Stromsgodset
3-2
AWAY Lilleström
4.00 xG 2.49
45% Ball Possession 55%
25 Total Shots 16
12 Shots on Target 5
11 Corners 7
361 Passes 474
84% Pass Accuracy 86%
50 Box Touches 34
36 Crosses 24
2 Yellow Cards 3
POST-MATCH Stromsgodset vs Lilleström
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Stromsgodset squeezed past Lilleström 3-2. It was 1-2 at half-time, meaning the result turned around in the second half. 5 goals made it one of the day's more open games.

Our pre-match split (40% / 26% / 34%) promised a tight game; Stromsgodset found the edge the numbers couldn't. We had also flagged both teams to score (58%), and that read landed as well.

On the day, Stromsgodset had 45% of the ball to Lilleström's 55%, shots finished 25-16, expected goals 4.00 to 2.49 — an xG gap that size says the one-goal margin undersold Stromsgodset's control.

For context: across their last 6 meetings in our records, Lilleström led the recent series with 5 wins. Those games averaged 2.00 goals for Stromsgodset and 2.50 for Lilleström.

What was the final score of Stromsgodset vs Lilleström?

Stromsgodset 3-2 Lilleström in the Norway - Eliteserien on 17/08/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Stromsgodset vs Lilleström?

Before kick-off our model rated a Stromsgodset win the most likely single outcome at about 40%, with the full match-result split Stromsgodset 40%, draw 26%, Lilleström 34%. The final score 3-2 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Stromsgodset), Over 2.5, BTTS Yes — a clean sweep of the main markets.

✓ Match Result (Stromsgodset) ✓ Over 2.5 ✓ BTTS Yes
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