Lilleström 3-1 Stromsgodset — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Norway - Eliteserien, 13 Jul 2024

📅13/07/2024 · 🕒18:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-2 2nd Score 2-2
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
38%
1.96
Draw
24%
3.54
Away
38%
3.08
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
45%
2.23
Over 2.5
55%
1.59
Both Teams to Score
Yes
57%
1.53
No
43%
2.33
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
24%
4.66
2-3 Goals
38%
1.91
4-5 Goals
27%
2.86
6+ Goals
11%
8.03
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
21%
2.68
1/2 EV+ ✗
7%
31.0
1/X
6%
12.95
X/1
9%
4.82
X/2
14%
7.25
X/X
12%
5.57
2/1
8%
21.85
2/2
16%
4.72
2/X
7%
13.15
Value flag · 1/2 at 31.0 — our 7% vs market 1.3%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
38%
Home Win
47%
-8.6pp
24%
Draw
25%
-0.2pp
38%
Away Win
29%
+8.9pp
46%
Under 2.5
41%
+4.5pp
55%
Over 2.5
59%
-4.5pp
57%
BTTS Yes
61%
-4.4pp
43%
BTTS No
39%
+4.4pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Lilleström EU Bookmakers 51%
Head to Head
AWAY Stromsgodset EU Bookmakers 32%
+0% / -7% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +0% / +6%
1.36/1.03 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.13/1.44
-15% / +10% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -24% / +13%
54% Ball Possession 46%
16 Total Shots 15
5 Shots on Target 6
6 Corners 5
349 · 79% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 313 · 77%
24.2 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 22.1
22.3 Crosses 17.9
1.1 Yellow Cards 1.4
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Lilleström
5W-0D-1L
AWAY Stromsgodset
2.67 Avg Goals (FT) 2.00
2.22 xG 1.21
54% Ball Possession 46%
18 Total Shots 13
8 Shots on Target 5
9 Corners 6
327 Passes 286
80% Pass Accuracy 76%
26 Box Touches 22
30 Crosses 20
1 Yellow Cards 2
09.05.2024 Stromsgodset Stromsgodset 3-4 HT 2-3 Lilleström Lilleström NOK
20.08.2023 Stromsgodset Stromsgodset 1-2 HT 0-1 Lilleström Lilleström NOR
19.04.2023 Lilleström Lilleström 4-3 HT 2-2 Stromsgodset Stromsgodset NOR
10.09.2022 Lilleström Lilleström 2-1 HT 2-0 Stromsgodset Stromsgodset NOR
26.06.2022 Stromsgodset Stromsgodset 3-0 HT 0-0 Lilleström Lilleström NOR
27.11.2021 Lilleström Lilleström 4-1 HT 3-0 Stromsgodset Stromsgodset NOR
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Lilleström
3-1
AWAY Stromsgodset
2.60 xG 0.47
55% Ball Possession 45%
21 Total Shots 9
10 Shots on Target 2
10 Corners 2
398 Passes 313
86% Pass Accuracy 81%
40 Box Touches 16
27 Crosses 9
2 Yellow Cards 2
POST-MATCH Lilleström vs Stromsgodset
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Lilleström got the better of Stromsgodset 3-1. Half-time: 2-1.

Our pre-match split (38% / 24% / 38%) promised a tight game; Lilleström found the edge the numbers couldn't. We had also flagged over 2.5 goals (55%), both teams to score (57%), and both reads landed as well.

On the day, Lilleström had 55% of the ball to Stromsgodset's 45%, shots finished 21-9, expected goals 2.60 to 0.47.

Coming into the game, across their last 6 meetings in our records, Lilleström had the better of it with 5 wins. Those games averaged 2.67 goals for Lilleström and 2.00 for Stromsgodset.

What was the final score of Lilleström vs Stromsgodset?

Lilleström 3-1 Stromsgodset in the Norway - Eliteserien on 13/07/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Lilleström vs Stromsgodset?

Before kick-off our model rated a Lilleström win the most likely single outcome at about 38%, with the full match-result split Lilleström 38%, draw 24%, Stromsgodset 38%. The final score 3-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Over 2.5, BTTS Yes — a clean sweep of the main markets.

◐ Match Result — model had it level (38/24/38) ✓ Over 2.5 ✓ BTTS Yes
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