Pogon Szczecin 2-0 Widzew Lodz — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Poland - Ekstraklasa, 17 Aug 2024

Pogon Szczecin
2-0 HT 1-0
Widzew Lodz
📅17/08/2024 · 🕒21:15 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-0 ✗ 2nd Score 0-1 ✗
Poland - Ekstraklasa – 2024/2025

Pogon Szczecin vs Widzew Lodz Prediction — Model Probabilities

MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
47%
1.64
Draw
24%
3.8
Away
29%
4.31
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
54%
2.18
Over 2.5
46%
1.62
Both Teams to Score
Yes
47%
1.66
No
53%
2.09
Total Goals
0-1 Goal EV+ ✗
28%
4.35
2-3 Goals
41%
1.88
4-5 Goals
22%
2.96
6+ Goals
9%
8.88
Value flag · 0-1 Goal at 4.35 — our 28% vs market 18.1%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
22%
2.08
1/2
5%
34.5
1/X
9%
14.55
X/1
16%
4.07
X/2 EV+ ✗
14%
10.05
X/X
7%
5.81
2/1
8%
21.2
2/2
10%
7.2
2/X
9%
15.15
Value flag · X/2 at 10.05 — our 14% vs market 6.6%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
💡 For the risk lovers: Home Win ★★ — pattern-based signals at fair odds; informational, not a sized bet.
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
47%
Home Win
57%
-10.4pp
24%
Draw
23%
+1.2pp
29%
Away Win
20%
+9.1pp
54%
Under 2.5
42%
+11.5pp
46%
Over 2.5
58%
-11.5pp
47%
BTTS Yes
56%
-9.3pp
53%
BTTS No
44%
+9.3pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.

Pogon Szczecin v Widzew Lodz — Team-Based Signals

PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Pogon Szczecin EU Bookmakers 61%
Head to Head
AWAY Widzew Lodz EU Bookmakers 23%
+6% / +6% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -6% / -10%
2.11/0.92 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.12/1.55
+24% / -8% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +22% / -8%
56% Ball Possession 44%
17 Total Shots 11
6 Shots on Target 5
6 Corners 4
402 · 83% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 304 · 78%
30.6 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 18.8
21.7 Crosses 19.7
1.9 Yellow Cards 2.0

Pogon Szczecin vs Widzew Lodz Head-to-Head — Last 6 Meetings

H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Pogon Szczecin
4W-1D-1L
AWAY Widzew Lodz
1.83 Avg Goals (FT) 1.33
1.84 xG 1.67
53% Ball Possession 47%
15 Total Shots 13
7 Shots on Target 4
7 Corners 6
396 Passes 352
83% Pass Accuracy 81%
30 Box Touches 19
22 Crosses 18
1 Yellow Cards 2
The Meetings
16.12.2023 Widzew Lodz Widzew Lodz 1-2 HT 1-1 Pogon Szczecin Pogon Szczecin POL
30.07.2023 Pogon Szczecin Pogon Szczecin 2-1 HT 0-1 Widzew Lodz Widzew Lodz POL
28.01.2023 Widzew Lodz Widzew Lodz 3-3 HT 0-1 Pogon Szczecin Pogon Szczecin POL
17.07.2022 Pogon Szczecin Pogon Szczecin 2-1 HT 1-1 Widzew Lodz Widzew Lodz POL
12.04.2014 Pogon Szczecin Pogon Szczecin 1-0 HT 0-0 Widzew Lodz Widzew Lodz POL
02.11.2013 Widzew Lodz Widzew Lodz 2-1 HT 1-0 Pogon Szczecin Pogon Szczecin POL

Pogon Szczecin 2-0 Widzew Lodz — Actual Match Statistics

RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Pogon Szczecin
2-0
AWAY Widzew Lodz
2.30 xG 0.70
63% Ball Possession 37%
23 Total Shots 5
8 Shots on Target 2
9 Corners 3
511 Passes 287
87% Pass Accuracy 83%
57 Box Touches 11
30 Crosses 10
1 Yellow Cards 0
POST-MATCH Pogon Szczecin vs Widzew Lodz
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Pogon Szczecin beat Widzew Lodz 2-0. Half-time: 1-0.

As our pre-match numbers suggested, our model had Pogon Szczecin as the likeliest winner at 47%, and the 2-0 landed on that lead.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 46% and both teams to score was close to even at 47%.

On the day, Pogon Szczecin had 63% of the ball to Widzew Lodz's 37%, shots finished 23-5, expected goals 2.30 to 0.70.

For context: across their last 6 meetings in our records, Pogon Szczecin had the better of it with 4 wins, 1 drawn. Those games averaged 1.83 goals for Pogon Szczecin and 1.33 for Widzew Lodz.

What was the final score of Pogon Szczecin vs Widzew Lodz?

Pogon Szczecin 2-0 Widzew Lodz in the Poland - Ekstraklasa on 17/08/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Pogon Szczecin vs Widzew Lodz?

Before kick-off our model rated a Pogon Szczecin win the most likely single outcome at about 47%, with the full match-result split Pogon Szczecin 47%, draw 24%, Widzew Lodz 29%. The final score 2-0 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Pogon Szczecin), Under 2.5, BTTS No — a clean sweep of the main markets.

✓ Match Result (Pogon Szczecin) ✓ Under 2.5 ✓ BTTS No
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