Zaglebie Lubin 0-1 Lech Poznan — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Poland - Ekstraklasa, 17 Aug 2024

Zaglebie Lubin
0-1 HT 0-1
Lech Poznan
📅17/08/2024 · 🕒18:30 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-1 ✗ 2nd Score 1-0 ✗
Poland - Ekstraklasa – 2024/2025

Zaglebie Lubin vs Lech Poznan Prediction — Model Probabilities

MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
28%
2.94
Draw
30%
3.35
Away
42%
2.11
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
50%
2.03
Over 2.5
50%
1.71
Both Teams to Score
Yes
51%
1.61
No
49%
2.16
Total Goals
0-1 Goal EV+ ✓
27%
3.84
2-3 Goals
39%
1.83
4-5 Goals
22%
3.19
6+ Goals
12%
10.85
Value flag · 0-1 Goal at 3.84 — our 27% vs market 20.9%. Landed.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
10%
4.55
1/2
7%
24.45
1/X
10%
12.85
X/1
7%
6.73
X/2
10%
4.96
X/X
10%
4.91
2/1
11%
31.5
2/2
25%
2.96
2/X
10%
12.6
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
29%
Home Win
30%
-1.7pp
30%
Draw
26%
+3.4pp
42%
Away Win
43%
-1.7pp
50%
Under 2.5
45%
+4.6pp
50%
Over 2.5
55%
-4.6pp
51%
BTTS Yes
58%
-7.2pp
49%
BTTS No
42%
+7.2pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.

Zaglebie Lubin v Lech Poznan — Team-Based Signals

PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Zaglebie Lubin EU Bookmakers 34%
Head to Head
AWAY Lech Poznan EU Bookmakers 48%
-2% / -17% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -2% / -12%
1.29/1.44 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.59/1.10
-12% / -7% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +2% / +6%
45% Ball Possession 55%
12 Total Shots 15
4 Shots on Target 6
5 Corners 6
294 · 77% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 386 · 81%
22.8 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 25.8
20.8 Crosses 20.1
1.8 Yellow Cards 2.1

Zaglebie Lubin vs Lech Poznan Head-to-Head — Last 6 Meetings

H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Zaglebie Lubin
1W-2D-3L
AWAY Lech Poznan
1.17 Avg Goals (FT) 1.67
1.20 xG 2.08
42% Ball Possession 58%
14 Total Shots 17
4 Shots on Target 5
5 Corners 6
268 Passes 401
75% Pass Accuracy 82%
20 Box Touches 26
18 Crosses 20
2 Yellow Cards 2
The Meetings
10.02.2024 Lech Poznan Lech Poznan 2-0 HT 1-0 Zaglebie Lubin Zaglebie Lubin POL
06.08.2023 Zaglebie Lubin Zaglebie Lubin 1-1 HT 1-0 Lech Poznan Lech Poznan POL
19.02.2023 Lech Poznan Lech Poznan 1-2 HT 1-2 Zaglebie Lubin Zaglebie Lubin POL
07.08.2022 Zaglebie Lubin Zaglebie Lubin 1-1 HT 0-0 Lech Poznan Lech Poznan POL
21.05.2022 Lech Poznan Lech Poznan 2-1 HT 2-0 Zaglebie Lubin Zaglebie Lubin POL
05.12.2021 Zaglebie Lubin Zaglebie Lubin 2-3 HT 0-2 Lech Poznan Lech Poznan POL

Zaglebie Lubin 0-1 Lech Poznan — Actual Match Statistics

RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Zaglebie Lubin
0-1
AWAY Lech Poznan
0.92 xG 1.55
46% Ball Possession 54%
19 Total Shots 13
7 Shots on Target 2
3 Corners 3
350 Passes 425
82% Pass Accuracy 85%
23 Box Touches 27
19 Crosses 13
2 Yellow Cards 3
POST-MATCH Zaglebie Lubin vs Lech Poznan
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Lech Poznan nicked a narrow win over Zaglebie Lubin 1-0 away from home.

As we highlighted before kick-off, our model had Lech Poznan as the likeliest winner at 42%, and the 1-0 landed on that lead.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 50% and both teams to score was close to even at 51%.

On the day, Zaglebie Lubin had 46% of the ball to Lech Poznan's 54%, shots finished 19-13, expected goals 0.92 to 1.55.

For context: across their last 6 meetings in our records, Lech Poznan led the recent series with 3 wins, 2 drawn. Those games averaged 1.17 goals for Zaglebie Lubin and 1.67 for Lech Poznan.

What was the final score of Zaglebie Lubin vs Lech Poznan?

Zaglebie Lubin 0-1 Lech Poznan in the Poland - Ekstraklasa on 17/08/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Zaglebie Lubin vs Lech Poznan?

Before kick-off our model rated an Lech Poznan win the most likely single outcome at about 42%, with the full match-result split Zaglebie Lubin 29%, draw 30%, Lech Poznan 42%. The final score 0-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Lech Poznan) — while BTTS Yes went the other way.

✓ Match Result (Lech Poznan) ✗ BTTS Yes
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