Jagiellonia Bialystok 2-4 Cracovia Krakow — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Poland - Ekstraklasa, 17 Aug 2024

Jagiellonia Bialystok
2-4 HT 2-2
Cracovia Krakow
📅17/08/2024 · 🕒15:45 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-1 ✗ 2nd Score 1-0 ✗
Poland - Ekstraklasa – 2024/2025

Jagiellonia Bialystok vs Cracovia Krakow Prediction — Model Probabilities

MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
46%
1.82
Draw
27%
3.45
Away
27%
3.71
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
54%
1.97
Over 2.5
46%
1.75
Both Teams to Score
Yes
53%
1.7
No
47%
2.03
Total Goals
0-1 Goal EV+ ✗
26%
3.68
2-3 Goals
43%
1.81
4-5 Goals
21%
3.29
6+ Goals
10%
11.7
Value flag · 0-1 Goal at 3.68 — our 26% vs market 21.9%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
23%
2.44
1/2
5%
34.5
1/X
8%
13.1
X/1
15%
4.38
X/2
11%
8.41
X/X
10%
4.9
2/1
8%
23.6
2/2
10%
6.13
2/X
10%
13.7
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
46%
Home Win
51%
-4.6pp
27%
Draw
26%
+1.7pp
27%
Away Win
24%
+2.9pp
54%
Under 2.5
47%
+6.7pp
46%
Over 2.5
53%
-6.7pp
53%
BTTS Yes
55%
-2.0pp
47%
BTTS No
45%
+2.0pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.

Jagiellonia Bialystok v Cracovia Krakow — Team-Based Signals

PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Jagiellonia Bialystok EU Bookmakers 55%
Head to Head
AWAY Cracovia Krakow EU Bookmakers 27%
+1% / +6% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +4% / +17%
2.06/1.42 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.22/1.14
+26% / -23% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -6% / +27%
52% Ball Possession 48%
14 Total Shots 11
4 Shots on Target 4
6 Corners 5
370 · 80% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 324 · 75%
29.2 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 19.7
23.1 Crosses 17.5
1.7 Yellow Cards 2.2

Jagiellonia Bialystok vs Cracovia Krakow Head-to-Head — Last 6 Meetings

H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Jagiellonia Bialystok
1W-2D-3L
AWAY Cracovia Krakow
1.17 Avg Goals (FT) 1.50
1.25 xG 1.54
59% Ball Possession 41%
13 Total Shots 15
4 Shots on Target 4
5 Corners 4
386 Passes 233
82% Pass Accuracy 74%
18 Box Touches 25
20 Crosses 22
1 Yellow Cards 3
The Meetings
14.04.2024 Jagiellonia Bialystok Jagiellonia Bialystok 1-3 HT 1-2 Cracovia Krakow Cracovia Krakow POL
08.10.2023 Cracovia Krakow Cracovia Krakow 2-4 HT 0-2 Jagiellonia Bialystok Jagiellonia Bialystok POL
20.05.2023 Jagiellonia Bialystok Jagiellonia Bialystok 1-1 HT 1-0 Cracovia Krakow Cracovia Krakow POL
05.11.2022 Cracovia Krakow Cracovia Krakow 1-0 HT 0-0 Jagiellonia Bialystok Jagiellonia Bialystok POL
19.02.2022 Jagiellonia Bialystok Jagiellonia Bialystok 0-0 HT 0-0 Cracovia Krakow Cracovia Krakow POL
21.08.2021 Cracovia Krakow Cracovia Krakow 2-1 HT 1-0 Jagiellonia Bialystok Jagiellonia Bialystok POL

Jagiellonia Bialystok 2-4 Cracovia Krakow — Actual Match Statistics

RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Jagiellonia Bialystok
2-4
AWAY Cracovia Krakow
2.25 xG 2.28
75% Ball Possession 25%
23 Total Shots 13
6 Shots on Target 6
13 Corners 3
555 Passes 142
89% Pass Accuracy 68%
50 Box Touches 19
43 Crosses 10
1 Yellow Cards 2
POST-MATCH Jagiellonia Bialystok vs Cracovia Krakow
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Cracovia Krakow saw off Jagiellonia Bialystok 4-2 away from home. The game was level at 2-2 at the break, so the decisive goals came after it. 6 goals made it one of the day's more open games.

Our pre-match lean was Jagiellonia Bialystok at 46%, but a lead that slim is closer to a coin-flip than a call — and it fell the other way.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 46% and both teams to score was close to even at 53%.

On the day, Jagiellonia Bialystok had 75% of the ball to Cracovia Krakow's 25%, shots finished 23-13, expected goals 2.25 to 2.28.

For context: across their last 6 meetings in our records, Cracovia Krakow led the recent series with 3 wins, 2 drawn. Those games averaged 1.17 goals for Jagiellonia Bialystok and 1.50 for Cracovia Krakow.

What was the final score of Jagiellonia Bialystok vs Cracovia Krakow?

Jagiellonia Bialystok 2-4 Cracovia Krakow in the Poland - Ekstraklasa on 17/08/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Jagiellonia Bialystok vs Cracovia Krakow?

Before kick-off our model rated a Jagiellonia Bialystok win the most likely single outcome at about 46%, with the full match-result split Jagiellonia Bialystok 46%, draw 27%, Cracovia Krakow 27%. The final score 2-4 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on BTTS Yes — while Match Result (Jagiellonia Bialystok), Under 2.5 went the other way.

✗ Match Result (Jagiellonia Bialystok) ✗ Under 2.5 ✓ BTTS Yes
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