Rostov 3-2 FK Orenburg — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Russia - Premier League, 17 Aug 2024

📅17/08/2024 · 🕒19:30 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-0 2nd Score 0-0
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
45%
1.72
Draw
28%
3.72
Away
27%
4.04
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
53%
2.15
Over 2.5
47%
1.64
Both Teams to Score
Yes
46%
1.66
No
54%
2.09
Total Goals
0-1 Goal EV+ ✗
26%
4.28
2-3 Goals
45%
1.87
4-5 Goals
21%
2.98
6+ Goals
8%
9.09
Value flag · 0-1 Goal at 4.28 — our 26% vs market 18.4%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
21%
2.16
1/2
7%
34.5
1/X
10%
14.3
X/1
18%
4.14
X/2
9%
9.43
X/X
10%
5.7
2/1
6%
21.35
2/2
12%
6.74
2/X
7%
14.85
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
💡 For the risk lovers: Home Win ★★ — pattern-based signals at fair odds; informational, not a sized bet.
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
45%
Home Win
54%
-9.6pp
28%
Draw
24%
+3.8pp
28%
Away Win
22%
+5.8pp
53%
Under 2.5
43%
+9.8pp
47%
Over 2.5
57%
-9.8pp
46%
BTTS Yes
56%
-10.1pp
54%
BTTS No
44%
+10.1pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Rostov EU Bookmakers 58%
Head to Head
AWAY FK Orenburg EU Bookmakers 25%
-1% / -10% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -1% / -8%
1.36/0.58 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 0.89/1.46
-20% / +11% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +14% / -2%
51% Ball Possession 49%
13 Total Shots 10
5 Shots on Target 4
5 Corners 4
334 · 78% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 330 · 76%
24.3 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 18.8
22.2 Crosses 16.2
2.0 Yellow Cards 2.4
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Rostov
3W-2D-1L
AWAY FK Orenburg
2.00 Avg Goals (FT) 1.67
2.24 xG 1.44
57% Ball Possession 43%
18 Total Shots 12
6 Shots on Target 6
8 Corners 4
346 Passes 242
77% Pass Accuracy 72%
34 Box Touches 19
26 Crosses 16
3 Yellow Cards 4
29.04.2024 Rostov Rostov 2-1 HT 0-1 FK Orenburg FK Orenburg RUS
06.11.2023 FK Orenburg FK Orenburg 1-1 HT 0-0 Rostov Rostov RUS
10.04.2023 FK Orenburg FK Orenburg 2-2 HT 2-0 Rostov Rostov RUS
23.11.2022 FK Orenburg FK Orenburg 4-2 HT 3-0 Rostov Rostov RUK
14.09.2022 Rostov Rostov 3-1 HT 0-0 FK Orenburg FK Orenburg RUK
07.08.2022 Rostov Rostov 2-1 HT 1-0 FK Orenburg FK Orenburg RUS
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Rostov
3-2
AWAY FK Orenburg
3.12 xG 1.57
61% Ball Possession 39%
22 Total Shots 19
11 Shots on Target 3
3 Corners 4
390 Passes 236
78% Pass Accuracy 72%
37 Box Touches 20
30 Crosses 14
1 Yellow Cards 3
POST-MATCH Rostov vs FK Orenburg
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Rostov nicked a narrow win over FK Orenburg 3-2. It was 0-2 at half-time, meaning the result turned around in the second half. 5 goals made it one of the day's more open games.

Just as the model leaned, our model had Rostov as the likeliest winner at 45%, and the 3-2 landed on that lead.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 47% and both teams to score was close to even at 46%.

On the day, Rostov had 61% of the ball to FK Orenburg's 39%, shots finished 22-19, expected goals 3.12 to 1.57 — an xG gap that size says the one-goal margin undersold Rostov's control.

For context: across their last 6 meetings in our records, Rostov had the better of it with 3 wins, 2 drawn. Those games averaged 2.00 goals for Rostov and 1.67 for FK Orenburg.

What was the final score of Rostov vs FK Orenburg?

Rostov 3-2 FK Orenburg in the Russia - Premier League on 17/08/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Rostov vs FK Orenburg?

Before kick-off our model rated a Rostov win the most likely single outcome at about 45%, with the full match-result split Rostov 45%, draw 28%, FK Orenburg 28%. The final score 3-2 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Rostov) — while Under 2.5, BTTS No went the other way.

✓ Match Result (Rostov) ✗ Under 2.5 ✗ BTTS No
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