Rostov 2-1 FK Orenburg — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Russia - Premier League, 29 Apr 2024

📅29/04/2024 · 🕒19:45 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-1 2nd Score 1-0
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
45%
2.09
Draw
27%
3.35
Away
28%
3.02
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
49%
1.86
Over 2.5
51%
1.86
Both Teams to Score
Yes
51%
1.73
No
49%
1.99
Total Goals
0-1 Goal EV+ ✗
29%
3.3
2-3 Goals
37%
1.78
4-5 Goals
22%
3.58
6+ Goals
12%
14.3
Value flag · 0-1 Goal at 3.3 — our 29% vs market 24.8%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
23%
2.99
1/2
6%
34.5
1/X
7%
13.15
X/1
13%
4.76
X/2
10%
6.61
X/X
11%
4.61
2/1
9%
25.5
2/2
12%
4.75
2/X
9%
13.45
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
💡 For the risk lovers: Home Win ★★ — pattern-based signals at fair odds; informational, not a sized bet.
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
45%
Home Win
44%
+0.9pp
27%
Draw
26%
+0.9pp
28%
Away Win
30%
-1.8pp
49%
Under 2.5
50%
-0.6pp
51%
Over 2.5
50%
+0.6pp
51%
BTTS Yes
54%
-3.2pp
49%
BTTS No
46%
+3.2pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Rostov EU Bookmakers 48%
Head to Head
AWAY FK Orenburg EU Bookmakers 33%
+2% / +14% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -8% / -6%
1.64/1.17 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.00/1.32
+19% / -17% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -15% / +1%
54% Ball Possession 46%
15 Total Shots 12
5 Shots on Target 4
6 Corners 5
332 · 77% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 265 · 72%
26.8 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 19.7
20.4 Crosses 18.0
2.3 Yellow Cards 2.8
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Rostov
2W-3D-1L
AWAY FK Orenburg
1.67 Avg Goals (FT) 1.50
2.33 xG 1.50
58% Ball Possession 42%
16 Total Shots 12
6 Shots on Target 6
7 Corners 4
362 Passes 236
78% Pass Accuracy 72%
30 Box Touches 21
26 Crosses 19
3 Yellow Cards 4
06.11.2023 FK Orenburg FK Orenburg 1-1 HT 0-0 Rostov Rostov RUS
10.04.2023 FK Orenburg FK Orenburg 2-2 HT 2-0 Rostov Rostov RUS
23.11.2022 FK Orenburg FK Orenburg 4-2 HT 3-0 Rostov Rostov RUK
14.09.2022 Rostov Rostov 3-1 HT 0-0 FK Orenburg FK Orenburg RUK
07.08.2022 Rostov Rostov 2-1 HT 1-0 FK Orenburg FK Orenburg RUS
12.07.2020 FK Orenburg FK Orenburg 0-0 HT 0-0 Rostov Rostov RUS
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Rostov
2-1
AWAY FK Orenburg
1.99 xG 1.26
65% Ball Possession 35%
23 Total Shots 11
7 Shots on Target 4
9 Corners 2
430 Passes 201
79% Pass Accuracy 66%
47 Box Touches 11
25 Crosses 8
2 Yellow Cards 3
POST-MATCH Rostov vs FK Orenburg
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Rostov nicked a narrow win over FK Orenburg 2-1. It was 0-1 at half-time, meaning the result turned around in the second half.

As we said in the preview, our model had Rostov as the likeliest winner at 45%, and the 2-1 landed on that lead.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 51% and both teams to score was close to even at 51%.

On the day, Rostov had 65% of the ball to FK Orenburg's 35%, shots finished 23-11, expected goals 1.99 to 1.26.

Coming into the game, across their last 6 meetings in our records, Rostov had the better of it with 2 wins, 3 drawn. Those games averaged 1.67 goals for Rostov and 1.50 for FK Orenburg.

What was the final score of Rostov vs FK Orenburg?

Rostov 2-1 FK Orenburg in the Russia - Premier League on 29/04/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Rostov vs FK Orenburg?

Before kick-off our model rated a Rostov win the most likely single outcome at about 45%, with the full match-result split Rostov 45%, draw 27%, FK Orenburg 28%. The final score 2-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Rostov), Over 2.5, BTTS Yes — a clean sweep of the main markets.

✓ Match Result (Rostov) ✓ Over 2.5 ✓ BTTS Yes
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