Erzurumspor FK 1-0 MKE Ankaragücü — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Turkey - 1st Division, 17 Aug 2024

Erzurumspor FK
1-0 HT 1-0
MKE Ankaragücü
📅17/08/2024 · 🕒19:15 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 0-1 ✗ 2nd Score 1-0 ✓
Turkey - 1st Division – 2024/2025

Erzurumspor FK vs MKE Ankaragücü Prediction — Model Probabilities

MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
28%
3.69
Draw
22%
3.35
Away
50%
1.87
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
58%
1.71
Over 2.5
42%
2.03
Both Teams to Score
Yes
38%
1.95
No
62%
1.76
Total Goals
0-1 Goal EV+ ✓
34%
2.77
2-3 Goals
39%
1.77
4-5 Goals
20%
4.22
6+ Goals
7%
20.7
Value flag · 0-1 Goal at 2.77 — our 34% vs market 30.1%. Landed.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
10%
6.35
1/2
5%
26.0
1/X
4%
15.75
X/1 EV+ ✗
14%
7.73
X/2
17%
3.99
X/X
14%
4.48
2/1
4%
34.5
2/2
28%
2.55
2/X
4%
15.15
Value flag · X/1 at 7.73 — our 14% vs market 9.1%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
28%
Home Win
24%
+4.1pp
22%
Draw
26%
-4.4pp
50%
Away Win
50%
+0.3pp
58%
Under 2.5
55%
+3.7pp
42%
Over 2.5
45%
-3.7pp
38%
BTTS Yes
47%
-8.8pp
62%
BTTS No
53%
+8.8pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.

Erzurumspor FK v MKE Ankaragücü — Team-Based Signals

PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Erzurumspor FK EU Bookmakers 27%
Head to Head
AWAY MKE Ankaragücü EU Bookmakers 54%
-8% / -4% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -4% / -4%
0.94/1.34 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.86/1.13
-22% / -3% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +18% / -9%
48% Ball Possession 52%
11 Total Shots 13
4 Shots on Target 5
4 Corners 5
286 · 75% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 321 · 78%
15.5 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 25.0
18.4 Crosses 17.9
2.1 Yellow Cards 1.5

Erzurumspor FK vs MKE Ankaragücü Head-to-Head — Last 6 Meetings

H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Erzurumspor FK
2W-0D-4L
AWAY MKE Ankaragücü
0.83 Avg Goals (FT) 1.17
1.24 xG 1.04
55% Ball Possession 45%
17 Total Shots 9
5 Shots on Target 4
7 Corners 5
307 Passes 239
78% Pass Accuracy 73%
23 Box Touches 17
27 Crosses 18
3 Yellow Cards 3
The Meetings
27.02.2022 Erzurumspor FK Erzurumspor FK 0-1 HT 0-1 MKE Ankaragücü MKE Ankaragücü T1L
03.10.2021 MKE Ankaragücü MKE Ankaragücü 2-1 HT 1-0 Erzurumspor FK Erzurumspor FK T1L
31.01.2021 Erzurumspor FK Erzurumspor FK 1-0 HT 0-0 MKE Ankaragücü MKE Ankaragücü TSL
13.09.2020 MKE Ankaragücü MKE Ankaragücü 1-2 HT 0-0 Erzurumspor FK Erzurumspor FK TSL
24.02.2019 MKE Ankaragücü MKE Ankaragücü 2-1 HT 1-0 Erzurumspor FK Erzurumspor FK TSL
21.09.2018 Erzurumspor FK Erzurumspor FK 0-1 HT 0-0 MKE Ankaragücü MKE Ankaragücü TSL

Erzurumspor FK 1-0 MKE Ankaragücü — Actual Match Statistics

RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Erzurumspor FK
1-0
AWAY MKE Ankaragücü
0.52 xG 1.06
27% Ball Possession 73%
8 Total Shots 15
1 Shots on Target 1
4 Corners 3
142 Passes 518
65% Pass Accuracy 87%
10 Box Touches 21
10 Crosses 24
4 Yellow Cards 2
POST-MATCH Erzurumspor FK vs MKE Ankaragücü
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Erzurumspor FK squeezed past MKE Ankaragücü 1-0.

Our pre-match lean was MKE Ankaragücü at 50%, but a lead that slim is closer to a coin-flip than a call — and it fell the other way. The goals side of the card held up too — under 2.5 goals (58%), no to both teams scoring (62%) came in.

On the day, Erzurumspor FK had 27% of the ball to MKE Ankaragücü's 73%, shots finished 8-15, expected goals 0.52 to 1.06 — the balance of chances actually favoured MKE Ankaragücü.

Coming into the game, across their last 6 meetings in our records, MKE Ankaragücü led the recent series with 4 wins. Those games averaged 0.83 goals for Erzurumspor FK and 1.17 for MKE Ankaragücü.

What was the final score of Erzurumspor FK vs MKE Ankaragücü?

Erzurumspor FK 1-0 MKE Ankaragücü in the Turkey - 1st Division on 17/08/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Erzurumspor FK vs MKE Ankaragücü?

Before kick-off our model rated an MKE Ankaragücü win the most likely single outcome at about 50%, with the full match-result split Erzurumspor FK 28%, draw 22%, MKE Ankaragücü 50%. The final score 1-0 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Under 2.5, BTTS No — while Match Result (MKE Ankaragücü) went the other way.

✗ Match Result (MKE Ankaragücü) ✓ Under 2.5 ✓ BTTS No
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