Manisa FK 2-2 Sakaryaspor — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Turkey - 1st Division, 17 Aug 2024

📅17/08/2024 · 🕒21:45 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-0 2nd Score 0-1
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
32%
2.94
Draw
24%
3.11
Away
44%
2.24
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
59%
1.75
Over 2.5
41%
1.97
Both Teams to Score
Yes
42%
1.75
No
58%
1.96
Total Goals
0-1 Goal EV+ ✗
35%
3.04
2-3 Goals
40%
1.78
4-5 Goals
17%
3.84
6+ Goals
8%
16.9
Value flag · 0-1 Goal at 3.04 — our 35% vs market 27.2%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
13%
4.66
1/2
6%
28.0
1/X
8%
13.0
X/1
12%
6.45
X/2
12%
4.95
X/X
11%
4.23
2/1
7%
34.5
2/2
26%
3.2
2/X
5%
12.7
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
32%
Home Win
30%
+1.0pp
24%
Draw
29%
-4.4pp
44%
Away Win
41%
+3.4pp
59%
Under 2.5
53%
+5.4pp
41%
Over 2.5
47%
-5.4pp
42%
BTTS Yes
53%
-11.6pp
58%
BTTS No
47%
+11.6pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Manisa FK EU Bookmakers 34%
Head to Head
AWAY Sakaryaspor EU Bookmakers 45%
+6% / +6% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +3% / +6%
1.18/1.12 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.39/0.83
-16% / +16% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +3% / +14%
49% Ball Possession 51%
12 Total Shots 11
4 Shots on Target 4
5 Corners 4
298 · 74% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 319 · 75%
22.5 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 20.9
17.6 Crosses 17.3
2.5 Yellow Cards 1.6
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Manisa FK
1W-1D-3L
AWAY Sakaryaspor
0.60 Avg Goals (FT) 1.40
1.25 xG 1.38
53% Ball Possession 47%
14 Total Shots 9
6 Shots on Target 4
5 Corners 4
354 Passes 295
80% Pass Accuracy 75%
22 Box Touches 16
20 Crosses 13
2 Yellow Cards 3
02.03.2024 Sakaryaspor Sakaryaspor 2-0 HT 0-0 Manisa FK Manisa FK T1L
07.10.2023 Manisa FK Manisa FK 1-1 HT 1-1 Sakaryaspor Sakaryaspor T1L
08.04.2023 Sakaryaspor Sakaryaspor 2-0 HT 1-0 Manisa FK Manisa FK T1L
05.11.2022 Manisa FK Manisa FK 2-1 HT 0-0 Sakaryaspor Sakaryaspor T1L
20.02.2016 Sakaryaspor Sakaryaspor 1-0 HT 1-0 Manisa FK Manisa FK S3-2
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Manisa FK
2-2
AWAY Sakaryaspor
1.21 xG 2.10
56% Ball Possession 44%
11 Total Shots 9
7 Shots on Target 2
4 Corners 6
305 Passes 213
77% Pass Accuracy 73%
23 Box Touches 14
11 Crosses 23
6 Yellow Cards 3
POST-MATCH Manisa FK vs Sakaryaspor
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Manisa FK and Sakaryaspor couldn't be separated, finishing 2-2. Half-time: 0-1.

Our pre-match lean was Sakaryaspor at 44%, but a lead that slim is closer to a coin-flip than a call — and it fell the other way. The goals read — under 2.5 goals (59%), no to both teams scoring (58%) — went the other way, though.

On the day, Manisa FK had 56% of the ball to Sakaryaspor's 44%, shots finished 11-9, expected goals 1.21 to 2.10.

Coming into the game, across their last 5 meetings in our records, Sakaryaspor led the recent series with 3 wins, 1 drawn. Those games averaged 0.60 goals for Manisa FK and 1.40 for Sakaryaspor.

What was the final score of Manisa FK vs Sakaryaspor?

Manisa FK 2-2 Sakaryaspor in the Turkey - 1st Division on 17/08/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Manisa FK vs Sakaryaspor?

Before kick-off our model rated an Sakaryaspor win the most likely single outcome at about 44%, with the full match-result split Manisa FK 32%, draw 24%, Sakaryaspor 44%. The final score 2-2 went against our main leads this time — single matches are noisy by nature; our accuracy is measured across thousands of predictions, not one result.

✗ Match Result (Sakaryaspor) ✗ Under 2.5 ✗ BTTS No
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