Central Valley Fuego 1-3 Lexington — Result, Statistics & Match Review — USA - USL League 1, 17 Aug 2024

📅17/08/2024 · 🕒06:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 2-1 2nd Score 1-2
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
34%
2.19
Draw
27%
3.54
Away
39%
2.69
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
47%
2.33
Over 2.5
53%
1.54
Both Teams to Score
Yes
61%
1.46
No
39%
2.51
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
22%
2-3 Goals
42%
4-5 Goals
26%
6+ Goals
10%
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
16%
1/2
7%
1/X
5%
X/1
9%
X/2
17%
X/X
11%
2/1
9%
2/2
16%
2/X
10%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
💡 For the risk lovers: Over 2.5 ★★ — pattern-based signals at fair odds; informational, not a sized bet.
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
34%
Home Win
42%
-7.8pp
27%
Draw
25%
+2.0pp
39%
Away Win
34%
+5.8pp
47%
Under 2.5
39%
+7.5pp
53%
Over 2.5
61%
-7.5pp
61%
BTTS Yes
64%
-3.6pp
39%
BTTS No
36%
+3.6pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Central Valley Fuego EU Bookmakers 46%
Head to Head
AWAY Lexington EU Bookmakers 37%
-18% / -19% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -50% / -50%
1.40/1.35 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 0.75/1.34
-20% / -14% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -70% / -46%
51% Ball Possession 49%
12 Total Shots 10
4 Shots on Target 4
5 Corners 4
316 · 77% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 303 · 76%
23.4 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 17.0
22.1 Crosses 16.1
3.2 Yellow Cards 2.0
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Central Valley Fuego
1W-1D-1L
AWAY Lexington
2.00 Avg Goals (FT) 2.00
1.07 xG 1.82
51% Ball Possession 49%
14 Total Shots 10
5 Shots on Target 6
5 Corners 3
315 Passes 297
79% Pass Accuracy 80%
23 Box Touches 14
18 Crosses 11
2 Yellow Cards 2
11.09.2023 Central Valley Fuego Central Valley Fuego 2-2 HT 0-1 Lexington Lexington USL1
13.08.2023 Lexington Lexington 3-2 HT 2-0 Central Valley Fuego Central Valley Fuego USL1
16.07.2023 Central Valley Fuego Central Valley Fuego 2-1 HT 0-0 Lexington Lexington USL1
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Central Valley Fuego
1-3
AWAY Lexington
0.81 xG 1.22
64% Ball Possession 36%
12 Total Shots 9
5 Shots on Target 7
5 Corners 5
409 Passes 192
84% Pass Accuracy 71%
27 Box Touches 10
19 Crosses 13
3 Yellow Cards 1
POST-MATCH Central Valley Fuego vs Lexington
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Lexington beat Central Valley Fuego 3-1 away from home. Half-time: 0-2.

Our pre-match split (34% / 27% / 39%) promised a tight game; Lexington found the edge the numbers couldn't. We had also flagged both teams to score (61%), and that read landed as well.

On the day, Central Valley Fuego had 64% of the ball to Lexington's 36%, shots finished 12-9, expected goals 0.81 to 1.22.

For context: across their last 3 meetings in our records, honours were even at 1 apiece, 1 drawn. Those games averaged 2.00 goals for Central Valley Fuego and 2.00 for Lexington.

What was the final score of Central Valley Fuego vs Lexington?

Central Valley Fuego 1-3 Lexington in the USA - USL League 1 on 17/08/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Central Valley Fuego vs Lexington?

Before kick-off our model rated an Lexington win the most likely single outcome at about 39%, with the full match-result split Central Valley Fuego 34%, draw 27%, Lexington 39%. The final score 1-3 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Lexington), Over 2.5, BTTS Yes — a clean sweep of the main markets.

✓ Match Result (Lexington) ✓ Over 2.5 ✓ BTTS Yes
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