Milan 2-0 FC Bari 1908 — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Italy - Cup, 17 Aug 2025

📅17/08/2025 · 🕒22:15 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 2-1 2nd Score 3-0
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
77%
1.16
Draw
15%
6.26
Away
8%
10.87
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
38%
2.61
Over 2.5
62%
1.45
Both Teams to Score
Yes
49%
2.19
No
51%
1.6
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
19%
5.49
2-3 Goals
41%
2.0
4-5 Goals
28%
2.52
6+ Goals
12%
5.72
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
44%
1.25
1/2
3%
34.5
1/X
4%
29.5
X/1
23%
3.72
X/2
3%
33.0
X/X
6%
10.3
2/1 EV+ ✗
10%
24.95
2/2
3%
30.0
2/X
4%
34.5
Value flag · 2/1 at 24.95 — our 10% vs market 1.5%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
77%
Home Win
81%
-3.8pp
14%
Draw
13%
+1.8pp
8%
Away Win
6%
+2.0pp
38%
Under 2.5
35%
+3.1pp
62%
Over 2.5
65%
-3.1pp
49%
BTTS Yes
42%
+7.9pp
51%
BTTS No
58%
-7.9pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Milan EU Bookmakers 87%
Head to Head
AWAY FC Bari 1908 EU Bookmakers 9%
+0% / +1% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +40% / +40%
1.81/0.32 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.63/1.18
+88% / -9% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +150% / +109%
60% Ball Possession 40%
17 Total Shots 9
6 Shots on Target 2
8 Corners 4
500 · 87% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 284 · 79%
35.6 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 25.0
23.0 Crosses 4.0
1.2 Yellow Cards 2.0
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Milan
4W-2D-0L
AWAY FC Bari 1908
2.17 Avg Goals (FT) 0.50
14 Total Shots 10
6 Shots on Target 3
5 Corners 3
13.03.2011 Milan Milan 1-1 HT 0-1 FC Bari 1908 FC Bari 1908 İTA
20.01.2011 Milan Milan 3-0 HT 2-0 FC Bari 1908 FC Bari 1908 İTK
07.11.2010 FC Bari 1908 FC Bari 1908 2-3 HT 0-2 Milan Milan İTA
21.02.2010 FC Bari 1908 FC Bari 1908 0-2 HT 0-1 Milan Milan İTA
27.09.2009 Milan Milan 0-0 HT 0-0 FC Bari 1908 FC Bari 1908 İTA
18.03.2001 Milan Milan 4-0 HT 2-0 FC Bari 1908 FC Bari 1908 İTA
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Milan
2-0
AWAY FC Bari 1908
2.41 xG 0.29
65% Ball Possession 35%
24 Total Shots 6
5 Shots on Target 1
12 Corners 1
604 Passes 299
93% Pass Accuracy 84%
59 Box Touches 6
25 Crosses 6
1 Yellow Cards 0
POST-MATCH Milan vs FC Bari 1908
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Milan beat FC Bari 1908 2-0. Half-time: 1-0.

Just as the model leaned, our model had Milan as the likeliest winner at 77%, and the 2-0 landed on that lead. The goals read — over 2.5 goals (62%) — went the other way, though.

On the day, Milan had 65% of the ball to FC Bari 1908's 35%, shots finished 24-6, expected goals 2.41 to 0.29.

Coming into the game, across their last 6 meetings in our records, Milan had the better of it with 4 wins, 2 drawn. Those games averaged 2.17 goals for Milan and 0.50 for FC Bari 1908.

What was the final score of Milan vs FC Bari 1908?

Milan 2-0 FC Bari 1908 in the Italy - Cup on 17/08/2025. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Milan vs FC Bari 1908?

Before kick-off our model rated a Milan win the most likely single outcome at about 77%, with the full match-result split Milan 77%, draw 14%, FC Bari 1908 8%. The final score 2-0 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Milan), BTTS No — while Over 2.5 went the other way.

✓ Match Result (Milan) ✗ Over 2.5 ✓ BTTS No
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