Monza vs Frosinone Prediction — Model Probabilities
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
Monza v Frosinone — Team-Based Signals
Monza vs Frosinone Head-to-Head — Last 6 Meetings
3-2
HT 2-0
Frosinone
İTK
4-1
HT 2-1
Monza
İTB
3-2
HT 0-0
Frosinone
İTB
2-2
HT 1-2
Monza
İTB
Monza 0-1 Frosinone — Actual Match Statistics
Frosinone edged past Monza 1-0 away from home. The game was level at 0-0 at the break, so the decisive goals came after it.
By our pre-match numbers this was an upset: we had Monza at 59% and the game still went the other way. Single results are noisy — probabilities earn their keep across thousands of matches, not one.
Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 52% and both teams to score was close to even at 51%.
On the day, Monza had 60% of the ball to Frosinone's 40%, shots finished 11-5, expected goals 0.62 to 0.50.
For context: across their last 6 meetings in our records, Monza had the better of it with 3 wins, 1 drawn. Those games averaged 2.00 goals for Monza and 2.17 for Frosinone.
What was the final score of Monza vs Frosinone?
Monza 0-1 Frosinone in the Italy - Cup on 17/08/2025. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.
What did the model predict for Monza vs Frosinone?
Before kick-off our model rated a Monza win the most likely single outcome at about 59%, with the full match-result split Monza 59%, draw 23%, Frosinone 17%. The final score 0-1 went against our main leads this time — single matches are noisy by nature; our accuracy is measured across thousands of predictions, not one result.