Monza 0-1 Frosinone — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Italy - Cup, 17 Aug 2025

📅17/08/2025 · 🕒19:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-0 2nd Score 2-0
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
59%
1.8
Draw
23%
3.35
Away
18%
4.04
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
48%
1.71
Over 2.5
52%
2.03
Both Teams to Score
Yes
51%
1.95
No
49%
1.76
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
24%
2.73
2-3 Goals
39%
1.72
4-5 Goals
26%
3.91
6+ Goals
11%
18.3
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
36%
2.37
1/2
5%
34.5
1/X
6%
13.85
X/1
15%
4.21
X/2
4%
8.73
X/X
12%
4.37
2/1
8%
26.0
2/2
8%
7.28
2/X
6%
15.35
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
💡 For the risk lovers: Home Win ★★★ — pattern-based signals at fair odds; informational, not a sized bet.
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
59%
Home Win
52%
+7.6pp
23%
Draw
27%
-3.3pp
17%
Away Win
22%
-4.3pp
48%
Under 2.5
55%
-6.5pp
52%
Over 2.5
45%
+6.5pp
51%
BTTS Yes
47%
+4.2pp
49%
BTTS No
53%
-4.2pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Monza EU Bookmakers 56%
Head to Head
AWAY Frosinone EU Bookmakers 25%
+34% / +34% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -21% / -21%
2.40/1.11 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.26/2.26
+77% / +4% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +23% / -19%
56% Ball Possession 44%
15 Total Shots 11
5 Shots on Target 3
6 Corners 5
418 · 82% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 284 · 76%
27.0 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 23.0
14.0 Crosses 22.0
0.0 Yellow Cards 2.0
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Monza
3W-1D-2L
AWAY Frosinone
2.00 Avg Goals (FT) 2.17
1.61 xG 1.37
57% Ball Possession 43%
12 Total Shots 14
4 Shots on Target 6
2 Corners 5
384 Passes 270
80% Pass Accuracy 76%
19 Box Touches 24
17 Crosses 20
2 Yellow Cards 3
19.05.2024 Monza Monza 0-1 HT 0-1 Frosinone Frosinone İTA
06.01.2024 Frosinone Frosinone 2-3 HT 0-2 Monza Monza İTA
07.08.2022 Monza Monza 3-2 HT 2-0 Frosinone Frosinone İTK
25.04.2022 Frosinone Frosinone 4-1 HT 2-1 Monza Monza İTB
11.12.2021 Monza Monza 3-2 HT 0-0 Frosinone Frosinone İTB
02.03.2021 Frosinone Frosinone 2-2 HT 1-2 Monza Monza İTB
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Monza
0-1
AWAY Frosinone
0.62 xG 0.50
60% Ball Possession 40%
11 Total Shots 5
2 Shots on Target 1
2 Corners 6
378 Passes 229
84% Pass Accuracy 79%
21 Box Touches 7
9 Crosses 11
1 Yellow Cards 1
POST-MATCH Monza vs Frosinone
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Frosinone edged past Monza 1-0 away from home. The game was level at 0-0 at the break, so the decisive goals came after it.

By our pre-match numbers this was an upset: we had Monza at 59% and the game still went the other way. Single results are noisy — probabilities earn their keep across thousands of matches, not one.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 52% and both teams to score was close to even at 51%.

On the day, Monza had 60% of the ball to Frosinone's 40%, shots finished 11-5, expected goals 0.62 to 0.50.

For context: across their last 6 meetings in our records, Monza had the better of it with 3 wins, 1 drawn. Those games averaged 2.00 goals for Monza and 2.17 for Frosinone.

What was the final score of Monza vs Frosinone?

Monza 0-1 Frosinone in the Italy - Cup on 17/08/2025. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Monza vs Frosinone?

Before kick-off our model rated a Monza win the most likely single outcome at about 59%, with the full match-result split Monza 59%, draw 23%, Frosinone 17%. The final score 0-1 went against our main leads this time — single matches are noisy by nature; our accuracy is measured across thousands of predictions, not one result.

✗ Match Result (Monza) ✗ Over 2.5 ✗ BTTS Yes
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