Frosinone 2-3 Monza — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Italy - Serie A, 6 Jan 2024

📅06/01/2024 · 🕒17:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-1 2nd Score 1-0
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
40%
2.27
Draw
28%
3.28
Away
32%
2.72
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
54%
1.95
Over 2.5
46%
1.78
Both Teams to Score
Yes
50%
1.63
No
50%
2.13
Total Goals
0-1 Goal EV+ ✗
28%
3.66
2-3 Goals
42%
1.82
4-5 Goals
19%
3.33
6+ Goals
11%
12.0
Value flag · 0-1 Goal at 3.66 — our 28% vs market 22.2%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
12%
3.34
1/2
8%
29.5
1/X
7%
12.3
X/1
17%
5.34
X/2
9%
6.09
X/X
10%
4.64
2/1
10%
26.5
2/2
15%
4.02
2/X
12%
12.4
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
40%
Home Win
40%
-0.4pp
28%
Draw
27%
+1.6pp
32%
Away Win
33%
-1.2pp
54%
Under 2.5
48%
+6.3pp
46%
Over 2.5
52%
-6.3pp
50%
BTTS Yes
57%
-6.8pp
50%
BTTS No
43%
+6.8pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Frosinone EU Bookmakers 44%
Head to Head
AWAY Monza EU Bookmakers 37%
+21% / +21% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +20% / +20%
0.84/1.36 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.11/1.09
+34% / -2% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +36% / +49%
49% Ball Possession 51%
14 Total Shots 12
5 Shots on Target 4
6 Corners 4
302 · 75% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 317 · 76%
29.9 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 20.4
20.1 Crosses 16.9
2.5 Yellow Cards 2.2
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Frosinone
1W-2D-3L
AWAY Monza
2.00 Avg Goals (FT) 2.17
1.11 xG 1.73
44% Ball Possession 57%
14 Total Shots 12
5 Shots on Target 5
4 Corners 4
260 Passes 380
76% Pass Accuracy 82%
23 Box Touches 20
22 Crosses 18
3 Yellow Cards 2
07.08.2022 Monza Monza 3-2 HT 2-0 Frosinone Frosinone İTK
25.04.2022 Frosinone Frosinone 4-1 HT 2-1 Monza Monza İTB
11.12.2021 Monza Monza 3-2 HT 0-0 Frosinone Frosinone İTB
02.03.2021 Frosinone Frosinone 2-2 HT 1-2 Monza Monza İTB
07.11.2020 Monza Monza 2-0 HT 0-0 Frosinone Frosinone İTB
30.07.2019 Monza Monza 2-2 HT 1-1 Frosinone Frosinone HAZ
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Frosinone
2-3
AWAY Monza
1.16 xG 1.34
59% Ball Possession 41%
10 Total Shots 7
5 Shots on Target 2
5 Corners 1
422 Passes 249
83% Pass Accuracy 71%
19 Box Touches 11
19 Crosses 3
3 Yellow Cards 5
POST-MATCH Frosinone vs Monza
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Monza edged past Frosinone 3-2 away from home. Half-time: 0-2. 5 goals made it one of the day's more open games.

Our pre-match split (40% / 28% / 32%) promised a tight game; Monza found the edge the numbers couldn't.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 46% and both teams to score was close to even at 50%.

On the day, Frosinone had 59% of the ball to Monza's 41%, shots finished 10-7, expected goals 1.16 to 1.34.

For context: across their last 6 meetings in our records, Monza led the recent series with 3 wins, 2 drawn. Those games averaged 2.00 goals for Frosinone and 2.17 for Monza.

What was the final score of Frosinone vs Monza?

Frosinone 2-3 Monza in the Italy - Serie A on 06/01/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Frosinone vs Monza?

Before kick-off our model rated a Frosinone win the most likely single outcome at about 40%, with the full match-result split Frosinone 40%, draw 28%, Monza 32%. The final score 2-3 went against our main leads this time — single matches are noisy by nature; our accuracy is measured across thousands of predictions, not one result.

✗ Match Result (Frosinone) ✗ Under 2.5
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