Sassuolo 1-0 Fiorentina — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Italy - Serie A, 6 Jan 2024

Sassuolo
1-0 HT 1-0
Fiorentina
📅06/01/2024 · 🕒22:45 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-0 ✓ 2nd Score 0-1 ✗
Italy - Serie A – 2023/2024

Sassuolo vs Fiorentina Prediction — Model Probabilities

MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
31%
2.99
Draw
25%
3.45
Away
44%
2.03
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
56%
2.03
Over 2.5
44%
1.71
Both Teams to Score
Yes
44%
1.61
No
56%
2.16
Total Goals
0-1 Goal EV+ ✓
30%
3.87
2-3 Goals
41%
1.83
4-5 Goals
20%
3.21
6+ Goals
9%
10.9
Value flag · 0-1 Goal at 3.87 — our 30% vs market 20.8%. Landed.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
10%
4.75
1/2
6%
23.85
1/X
8%
13.05
X/1 EV+ ✗
15%
6.91
X/2
17%
4.77
X/X
10%
4.95
2/1
6%
32.5
2/2
21%
2.82
2/X
7%
12.75
Value flag · X/1 at 6.91 — our 15% vs market 10.5%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
31%
Home Win
30%
+1.6pp
25%
Draw
25%
-0.4pp
44%
Away Win
45%
-1.2pp
56%
Under 2.5
45%
+10.3pp
44%
Over 2.5
55%
-10.3pp
44%
BTTS Yes
58%
-13.9pp
56%
BTTS No
42%
+13.9pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.

Sassuolo v Fiorentina — Team-Based Signals

PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Sassuolo EU Bookmakers 33%
Head to Head
AWAY Fiorentina EU Bookmakers 49%
-3% / -19% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +2% / -2%
1.12/1.54 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.22/1.11
-2% / -21% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +6% / +2%
45% Ball Possession 55%
12 Total Shots 14
4 Shots on Target 5
5 Corners 6
308 · 78% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 402 · 82%
20.3 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 23.4
16.4 Crosses 19.2
2.1 Yellow Cards 2.5

Sassuolo vs Fiorentina Head-to-Head — Last 6 Meetings

H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Sassuolo
2W-2D-2L
AWAY Fiorentina
1.67 Avg Goals (FT) 1.67
1.54 xG 2.19
55% Ball Possession 45%
12 Total Shots 15
4 Shots on Target 6
3 Corners 6
416 Passes 309
84% Pass Accuracy 80%
20 Box Touches 27
10 Crosses 19
3 Yellow Cards 3
The Meetings
02.06.2023 Sassuolo Sassuolo 1-3 HT 0-0 Fiorentina Fiorentina İTA
07.01.2023 Fiorentina Fiorentina 2-1 HT 0-0 Sassuolo Sassuolo İTA
26.02.2022 Sassuolo Sassuolo 2-1 HT 1-0 Fiorentina Fiorentina İTA
19.12.2021 Fiorentina Fiorentina 2-2 HT 0-2 Sassuolo Sassuolo İTA
17.04.2021 Sassuolo Sassuolo 3-1 HT 0-1 Fiorentina Fiorentina İTA
16.12.2020 Fiorentina Fiorentina 1-1 HT 1-1 Sassuolo Sassuolo İTA

Sassuolo 1-0 Fiorentina — Actual Match Statistics

RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Sassuolo
1-0
AWAY Fiorentina
0.88 xG 1.25
33% Ball Possession 67%
7 Total Shots 9
1 Shots on Target 3
1 Corners 8
161 Passes 382
69% Pass Accuracy 83%
11 Box Touches 35
5 Crosses 35
3 Yellow Cards 2
POST-MATCH Sassuolo vs Fiorentina
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Sassuolo squeezed past Fiorentina 1-0.

Our pre-match lean was Fiorentina at 44%, but a lead that slim is closer to a coin-flip than a call — and it fell the other way. We had also flagged under 2.5 goals (56%), no to both teams scoring (56%), and both reads landed as well.

On the day, Sassuolo had 33% of the ball to Fiorentina's 67%, shots finished 7-9, expected goals 0.88 to 1.25.

Coming into the game, across their last 6 meetings in our records, honours were even at 2 apiece, 2 drawn. Those games averaged 1.67 goals for Sassuolo and 1.67 for Fiorentina.

What was the final score of Sassuolo vs Fiorentina?

Sassuolo 1-0 Fiorentina in the Italy - Serie A on 06/01/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Sassuolo vs Fiorentina?

Before kick-off our model rated an Fiorentina win the most likely single outcome at about 44%, with the full match-result split Sassuolo 31%, draw 25%, Fiorentina 44%. The final score 1-0 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Under 2.5, BTTS No — while Match Result (Fiorentina) went the other way.

✗ Match Result (Fiorentina) ✓ Under 2.5 ✓ BTTS No
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