Lecce 1-1 Cagliari — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Italy - Serie A, 6 Jan 2024

Lecce
1-1 HT 1-0
Cagliari
📅06/01/2024 · 🕒20:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-0 ✗ 2nd Score 0-1 ✗
Italy - Serie A – 2025/2026

Lecce vs Cagliari Prediction — Model Probabilities

MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
45%
2.12
Draw
25%
3.11
Away
30%
3.15
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
56%
1.68
Over 2.5
44%
2.07
Both Teams to Score
Yes
46%
1.85
No
54%
1.85
Total Goals
0-1 Goal EV+ ✗
31%
2.82
2-3 Goals
41%
1.76
4-5 Goals
19%
4.19
6+ Goals
9%
20.3
Value flag · 0-1 Goal at 2.82 — our 31% vs market 29.6%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
25%
3.05
1/2
8%
34.0
1/X
9%
12.85
X/1
12%
4.71
X/2
11%
6.74
X/X
9%
4.0
2/1
8%
28.5
2/2
11%
5.11
2/X
7%
13.2
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
45%
Home Win
43%
+1.5pp
25%
Draw
29%
-3.2pp
30%
Away Win
28%
+1.7pp
56%
Under 2.5
56%
+0.8pp
44%
Over 2.5
44%
-0.8pp
46%
BTTS Yes
50%
-3.5pp
54%
BTTS No
50%
+3.5pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.

Lecce v Cagliari — Team-Based Signals

PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Lecce EU Bookmakers 47%
Head to Head
AWAY Cagliari EU Bookmakers 32%
-2% / -2% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -2% / -1%
1.08/1.08 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.16/1.34
-31% / +74% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -4% / -2%
47% Ball Possession 53%
12 Total Shots 10
5 Shots on Target 4
5 Corners 5
290 · 75% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 337 · 78%
18.9 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 19.1
19.2 Crosses 21.4
2.2 Yellow Cards 2.8

Lecce vs Cagliari Head-to-Head — Last 6 Meetings

H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Lecce
1W-3D-2L
AWAY Cagliari
1.50 Avg Goals (FT) 1.83
2.92 xG 1.48
52% Ball Possession 48%
16 Total Shots 12
6 Shots on Target 5
8 Corners 5
390 Passes 352
85% Pass Accuracy 82%
34 Box Touches 16
28 Crosses 20
2 Yellow Cards 2
The Meetings
12.07.2020 Cagliari Cagliari 0-0 HT 0-0 Lecce Lecce İTA
25.11.2019 Lecce Lecce 2-2 HT 0-1 Cagliari Cagliari İTA
26.02.2012 Cagliari Cagliari 1-2 HT 0-1 Lecce Lecce İTA
02.10.2011 Lecce Lecce 0-2 HT 0-2 Cagliari Cagliari İTA
17.04.2011 Lecce Lecce 3-3 HT 0-1 Cagliari Cagliari İTA
28.11.2010 Cagliari Cagliari 3-2 HT 3-0 Lecce Lecce İTA

Lecce 1-1 Cagliari — Actual Match Statistics

RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Lecce
1-1
AWAY Cagliari
1.61 xG 0.97
41% Ball Possession 59%
15 Total Shots 14
2 Shots on Target 2
7 Corners 6
186 Passes 299
70% Pass Accuracy 77%
27 Box Touches 18
20 Crosses 26
1 Yellow Cards 1
POST-MATCH Lecce vs Cagliari
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Lecce and Cagliari couldn't be separated, finishing 1-1. It was 1-0 at half-time, meaning the result turned around in the second half.

Our pre-match lean was Lecce at 45%, but a lead that slim is closer to a coin-flip than a call — and it fell the other way. The goals side of the card held up too — under 2.5 goals (56%) came in.

On the day, Lecce had 41% of the ball to Cagliari's 59%, shots finished 15-14, expected goals 1.61 to 0.97.

Coming into the game, across their last 6 meetings in our records, Cagliari led the recent series with 2 wins, 3 drawn. Those games averaged 1.50 goals for Lecce and 1.83 for Cagliari.

What was the final score of Lecce vs Cagliari?

Lecce 1-1 Cagliari in the Italy - Serie A on 06/01/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Lecce vs Cagliari?

Before kick-off our model rated a Lecce win the most likely single outcome at about 45%, with the full match-result split Lecce 45%, draw 25%, Cagliari 30%. The final score 1-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Under 2.5 — while Match Result (Lecce), BTTS No went the other way.

✗ Match Result (Lecce) ✓ Under 2.5 ✗ BTTS No
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