Lokomotive Leipzig 0-1 Schalke 04 — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Germany - DFB Cup, 17 Aug 2025

📅17/08/2025 · 🕒16:30 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-2 2nd Score 1-3
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
18%
4.65
Draw
19%
4.08
Away
63%
1.6
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
47%
2.29
Over 2.5
53%
1.56
Both Teams to Score
Yes
56%
1.66
No
44%
2.09
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
26%
4.41
2-3 Goals
36%
1.87
4-5 Goals
24%
2.76
6+ Goals
14%
7.66
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
7%
8.21
1/2 EV+ ✗
16%
19.85
1/X
6%
16.4
X/1
8%
10.9
X/2
22%
4.17
X/X
9%
6.28
2/1
4%
34.5
2/2
24%
1.91
2/X
4%
14.65
Value flag · 1/2 at 19.85 — our 16% vs market 2.6%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
18%
Home Win
19%
-0.8pp
19%
Draw
22%
-3.1pp
63%
Away Win
59%
+3.8pp
47%
Under 2.5
40%
+6.9pp
53%
Over 2.5
60%
-6.9pp
56%
BTTS Yes
56%
+0.2pp
44%
BTTS No
44%
-0.2pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Lokomotive Leipzig EU Bookmakers 22%
Head to Head
AWAY Schalke 04 EU Bookmakers 62%
+0% / +0% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +14% / +14%
–/– Expected GoalsScored / Conceded –/–
/ Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +56% / +69%
42% Ball Possession 58%
11 Total Shots 16
4 Shots on Target 6
3 Corners 6
255 · 76% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 408 · 84%
Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 25.5
Crosses 17.5
Yellow Cards 1.8
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Lokomotive Leipzig
0-1
AWAY Schalke 04
0.65 xG 2.26
46% Ball Possession 54%
11 Total Shots 26
4 Shots on Target 11
8 Corners 9
286 Passes 370
67% Pass Accuracy 76%
25 Box Touches 51
27 Crosses 37
2 Yellow Cards 2
POST-MATCH Lokomotive Leipzig vs Schalke 04
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Schalke 04 edged past Lokomotive Leipzig 1-0 away from home. The game was level at 0-0 at the break, so the decisive goals came after it.

Just as the model leaned, our model had Schalke 04 as the likeliest winner at 63%, and the 1-0 landed on that lead. The goals read — both teams to score (56%) — went the other way, though.

On the day, Lokomotive Leipzig had 46% of the ball to Schalke 04's 54%, shots finished 11-26, expected goals 0.65 to 2.26 — an xG gap that size says the one-goal margin undersold Schalke 04's control.

What was the final score of Lokomotive Leipzig vs Schalke 04?

Lokomotive Leipzig 0-1 Schalke 04 in the Germany - DFB Cup on 17/08/2025. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Lokomotive Leipzig vs Schalke 04?

Before kick-off our model rated an Schalke 04 win the most likely single outcome at about 63%, with the full match-result split Lokomotive Leipzig 18%, draw 19%, Schalke 04 63%. The final score 0-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Schalke 04) — while Over 2.5, BTTS Yes went the other way.

✓ Match Result (Schalke 04) ✗ Over 2.5 ✗ BTTS Yes
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